Key Stats for Qualcomm Stock
- Current Price: $219.09
- Target Price (Mid Case): ~$317
- Street Mean Target: ~$175
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~45%
- Annualized IRR (Mid): ~5% / year
- Earnings Reaction: +15.12% (April 29, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: 33.89% on April 7, 2026
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Qualcomm (QCOM) stock has risen roughly 80% from its April 7 low of $121.99, an unusual move for a $230 billion chip company. Shares surged 15.12% on April 29 after a Q2 earnings beat and a surprise hyperscaler chip announcement, then extended gains further this week after Daiwa Securities upgraded the stock to Outperform and raised its price target from $140 to $225. In the research note, Daiwa questioned whether Qualcomm could become the next chipmaker to experience a significant valuation re-rating, drawing parallels with recent investor enthusiasm surrounding Arm Holdings, and pointed to the upcoming June 24 Investor Day as a potentially important catalyst.
Bulls argue the market is finally pricing a Qualcomm that sells chips into data centers, cars, and AI PCs, not just smartphones. Bears point to soft near-term guidance and a coming Apple modem exit. The unresolved question: Does the data center thesis have enough substance to hold a stock now trading well above the Street’s mean target of $174.84?
What Daiwa’s Upgrade Is Really Saying
Daiwa is not buying the near-term earnings story. It is buying the optionality. At roughly 22x NTM P/E and 17x NTM EV/EBITDA, per TIKR’s Multiples page, QCOM trades at a discount to both NVIDIA at approximately 21x EV/EBITDA and Broadcom at approximately 25x EV/EBITDA, per TIKR’s Competitors page. That discount exists because Qualcomm’s commercial data center silicon shipments haven’t started yet. If the hyperscaler program scales into a multi-generation engagement, that gap narrows. If it stalls, the stock looks expensive against an earnings base still under handset pressure.
The upgrade is not a consensus view. JPMorgan downgraded QCOM to Neutral on April 16, cutting its price target to $140 from $185 and citing a forecasted low double-digit decline in smartphone shipments in 2026 and slow diversification progress limiting near-term re-rating catalysts. Barclays reinstated coverage at Underweight with a $130 target in late April. Per TIKR’s Street Targets page, of 39 analysts covering QCOM, 10 rate it Buy, 2 Outperform, 21 Hold, 3 Underperform, and 2 Sell. The majority remains skeptical, which makes the June 24 Investor Day the most consequential near-term event on the calendar.
See historical and forward estimates for Qualcomm stock (It’s free!) >>>
What Earnings Actually Revealed
Revenue came in at $10.6 billion for fiscal Q2 with non-GAAP EPS of $2.65 at the high end of guidance. Automotive delivered another record quarter at $1.3 billion, up 38% year over year. IoT revenue rose 9% year over year to $1.7 billion. The weak spot was handsets, which fell 13% year over year to $6 billion as Chinese OEMs cut builds in response to tight memory supply. CFO Akash Palkhiwala confirmed that trough is expected in fiscal Q3, with sequential growth resuming in Q4.
Q3 revenue is guided at $9.2 billion to $10 billion, with handset revenue at approximately $4.9 billion. The Apple transition adds a structural overhang on top of the cyclical pressure: Qualcomm holds approximately 20% share in Apple’s fall 2026 iPhone launch with no product relationship beyond that. Per the transcript, sell-side models place Qualcomm’s QCT product revenue from Apple at just over $2 billion in fiscal 2027.
The data center announcement is what moved the stock. CEO Cristiano Amon confirmed a custom silicon program with a large hyperscaler, with initial shipments in December 2026, and described it as a “multi-generation” relationship expected to be margin accretive.
He described agentic AI workloads as “predominantly CPU-bound” and argued Qualcomm’s CPU architecture is directly competitive in that environment. Full details are reserved for the June 24 Investor Day. The company also completed $5.4 billion of share repurchases in the first half of fiscal 2026 and announced a new $20 billion authorization, while returning $3.7 billion to shareholders in Q2 alone.
Automotive: The Segment Doing the Real Work Now
Automotive crossed $5 billion in annualized revenue for the first time in Q2, and management guided for approximately 50% year-over-year growth in Q3. Amon confirmed the company expects to exit fiscal 2026 at a run rate above $6 billion annually.
The growth is driven by the fourth-generation Snapdragon Digital Chassis, which covers digital cockpit, connectivity, and ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems). A fifth-generation platform begins commercial shipments by fiscal year-end, adding support for Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving and significantly higher silicon content per vehicle. Partnerships with BMW, Bosch, and Wayve are confirmed production-stage relationships. CFO Palkhiwala noted the segment is also transitioning from chip sales to higher-value module sales with a software layer on top, supporting margin expansion over time.
Automotive and IoT combined grew 20% year over year in Q2. That is the diversification the Street has been waiting to see at scale.
See how Qualcomm performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $219.09
- Mid-Case Target: ~$317
- Potential Total Return: ~45%
- Annualized IRR: ~5% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Qualcomm stock (It’s free!) >>>
The TIKR mid-case model uses a revenue CAGR of around 5% through fiscal year 2035, driven by automotive compounding into ADAS deployments and IoT growth across agentic edge devices. The mid-case projects a net income margin of around 24%, reflecting operating leverage as higher-margin automotive and software revenue grows. The model does not embed meaningful data center revenue, nor any traction from the hyperscaler program, is upside to the ~$317 mid-case figure.
The high case (~$381) assumes around 5% revenue CAGR with margins near 25% and some multiple expansion. The low case (~$255) reflects around 4% revenue CAGR and around 23% margins and still implies a positive return from today’s price. Even the pessimistic scenario does not produce a loss of $219.
At 17x NTM EV/EBITDA, QCOM trades below Broadcom (~25x) and NVIDIA (~21x) per TIKR’s Competitors page. That gap closes only if data center revenue becomes a real, scaled line item. The June 24 Investor Day is where management either validates that thesis or doesn’t.
Conclusion
Watch for a concrete, quantified data center revenue outlook at the June 24 Investor Day with named customer commitments. A credible roadmap supports the re-rating Daiwa is modeling. A vague update puts the stock at risk of retracing toward the Street’s consensus of ~$175. Qualcomm is a cash-generating chip company with an accelerating automotive business and a credible but early data center entry. At $219, investors are paying for both. June 24 is when they find out if that is justified.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
Should You Invest in Qualcomm?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Qualcomm, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Qualcomm alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Analyze Qualcomm on TIKR Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!