Key Stats for COIN Stock
- Price change for COIN stock: +16.46%
- COIN Share Price as of February 13: $164.32
- 52-Week High: $444.65
- COIN Stock Price Target: $217.73
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What Happened?
Coinbase Global (COIN) shares jumped over 16% after the company reported fourth-quarter results, even though earnings missed Wall Street expectations.
Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.8 billion, down 22% year over year, and slightly below analyst estimates. EBITDA also declined sharply, falling 56% from last year to $566 million, as trading activity slowed across crypto markets.
However, investors focused on cash flow strength. Coinbase generated $3.1 billion in free cash flow, a sharp reversal from negative free cash flow in the prior quarter, driven by working capital improvements and lower capital spending.
Despite the rally, profitability disappointed. Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million, compared with a profit of $1.3 billion a year ago, and adjusted EPS came in at -2.49, missing estimates by a wide margin.
Beyond the headline numbers, management highlighted ongoing diversification away from transaction-based revenue. Subscription and services revenue remained a growing portion of total revenue, helping stabilize results during periods of weaker crypto trading volumes.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About COIN Stock
The market’s reaction shows investors believe Coinbase’s long-term business model is more resilient than short-term earnings suggest.
The sharp rally came despite weaker margins and declining revenue, signaling that investors are prioritizing balance sheet strength and cash generation.
Coinbase ended the year with $11.6 billion in cash and short-term investments, while maintaining net cash on the balance sheet. That liquidity gives the company flexibility to navigate volatile crypto cycles.
Crypto-related stocks broadly moved higher as well, reflecting renewed optimism around digital asset prices and regulatory clarity expectations in the U.S.
The move suggests investors are looking past near-term earnings volatility and focusing on Coinbase’s role as core infrastructure in the crypto ecosystem.
Coinbase’s valuation reflects both recovery expectations and continued uncertainty.
Shares trade at roughly 40x forward earnings, while EV/EBITDA stands near 16x, both elevated compared to traditional exchanges but consistent with crypto-linked growth profiles.
Still, margins remain well below prior cycle peaks. LTM operating margin sits at 22%, down from over 45% during stronger crypto markets, highlighting earnings sensitivity to volume trends.
Using TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model, Coinbase’s target price is $218, implying 32.5% total upside from current levels, or about 10.3% annualized returns over the next three years.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
