Key Stats for CVNA Stock
- Past week’s performance: consolidating
- 52-week range: $148 to $487
- Valuation model target price: $545
- Implied upside: 80.3% over 2.8 years
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What Happened?
Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock was mostly steady this week, with shares closing at $302 on March 27. That quiet move came after a much louder stretch in March, when investors reacted to the company’s first-ever 5-for-1 forward stock split, its Los Angeles same-day delivery expansion, and fresh annual-report filings.
The bigger backdrop still starts with earnings. Carvana reported record 2025 revenue of $20.3 billion, retail units sold of 596,641, and adjusted EBITDA of $2.237 billion, but Reuters reported the stock fell about 15% after fourth-quarter profit missed Wall Street estimates because of higher costs tied to reconditioning and depreciation.
March then brought a new catalyst. Carvana’s board approved a 5-for-1 forward stock split, subject to shareholder approval at the May 5 annual meeting, and Reuters reported the shares rose 2.8% after that announcement. Stock splits do not change the business itself, but they can improve accessibility and liquidity, which helps explain why the news supported sentiment even as fundamentals stayed unchanged.
This week’s filings also kept Carvana in focus without changing the core thesis. The company’s proxy says the annual meeting is set for May 5, with March 10 as the record date, and the 2025 annual report reinforced that Carvana entered 2026 after a record year.
Therefore, the stock now appears to be pricing a transition from turnaround story to execution story, where investors want proof that 2025’s profit gains can continue through 2026.
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Is CVNA Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 25.6%
- Operating Margins: 10.2%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 32.6x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $544.65, implying 80.3% total upside from the current share price and a 23.7% annualized return over the next 2.8 years.
Those assumptions are aggressive, but they are tied to a business that just posted unusually strong growth for its size. Carvana’s revenue rose 48.6% in 2025, while gross profit increased 45.8% and operating income nearly doubled to $1.884 billion. The company also ended the period with a 20.6% gross margin and a 9.3% EBIT margin, so the model is asking investors to believe current profitability can hold and improve rather than vanish.
The balance sheet has also improved, which helps justify why investors still give the stock a premium multiple. Recent data shows a total cash and short-term investments of $2.813 billion, net debt of $2.782 billion, and free cash flow of $889 million in 2025. That means Carvana is no longer being valued like a distressed retailer, but more like a scaled platform that has already proven it can generate cash.
Even so, the current setup is not obviously cheap on every metric. CVNA is trading at 35.75x LTM earnings and 40.82x NTM earnings, even after the stock’s 2026 pullback, while the Street target price mean sits at $428.
So the valuation case depends less on multiple expansion and more on whether Carvana can keep growing faster than the used-car market while protecting margins.
What’s Driving the CVNA Stock Going Forward?
The next obvious catalyst is earnings. Carvana is expected to report Q1 2026 results on May 4, and management said in its shareholder letter that it expects significant growth in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA in full-year 2026, including a sequential increase in both metrics in Q1, “assuming the environment remains stable”.
Execution on customer experience is another important driver. Carvana expanded same-day delivery into Los Angeles in March, and its shareholder letter said the share of retail sales with same-day or next-day delivery more than doubled year over year in 2025 while average delivery times fell by one full day.
Industry conditions also matter. Reuters reported that used EV sales in the U.S. rose 21% year over year in January, while Carvana said used EV prices are normalizing and opening the category to more buyers.
At the same time, Reuters reported GM is expanding its CarBravo platform to compete more directly with digital used-car sellers like Carvana, so the company is operating in a healthier market but also a more competitive one.
Finally, investors will be watching the annual meeting and planned split closely. Carvana’s proxy says shareholders will vote on the split amendment on May 5. If approved, holders of record as of May 6 would receive four additional shares for each share owned, with split-adjusted trading expected to begin on May 7.
So the next move in the stock will likely depend on a mix of Q1 execution, market appetite for high-multiple retailers, and whether management can keep proving what it wrote in February: “Our business gets better as it gets bigger”.
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Should You Invest in Carvana Co.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up CVNA, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
