Key Takeaways for Carrier Global Stock as of August 2026
- Beat and Raise: Q2 revenue of $6.35B topped the $6.03B Street estimate by 5.35%, adjusted EPS of $0.86 beat the $0.82 estimate by 5.20%, and free cash flow of $810M crushed the $424.80M estimate by 90.68%.
- Guidance Lift: Carrier raised full-year sales guidance to ~$23B, adjusted operating profit to ~$3.5B, and adjusted EPS to ~$2.90, up from ~$3.4B and $2.80 prior.
- Data Center Surge: Data center orders jumped 4x YoY, pushing total backlog above $8B, up ~40% YoY.
- Price/Cost Reset: CEO David Gitlin admitted Carrier must “do a better job on both price and cost,” naming Thomas Donato to fix commercial margins after EBIT margin fell 183bps YoY.
Carrier’s data center backlog is exploding, but the price and cost work is just starting. Analyze CARR stock on TIKR for free →
Carrier Beats Q2 Earnings but Margins Slip as Backlog Tops $8 Billion
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) posted second-quarter revenue of $6.35 billion on July 28, beating the Street’s $6.03 billion estimate by 5.35% and putting fresh wind behind Carrier stock heading into the back half of 2026. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.86 topped the $0.82 estimate by 5.20%, and free cash flow of $810 million beat the $424.80 million estimate by 90.68%. Management raised full-year guidance to $23 billion in sales, $3.5 billion in adjusted operating profit and $2.90 in adjusted EPS, up from a prior guide of $3.4 billion and $2.80.
The engine behind that raise is data centers. Second-quarter orders across the company jumped 40%, with commercial HVAC orders up 65% and data center orders alone up 4x year over year. Total backlog, which excludes long-term hyperscaler and colocation agreements, climbed past $8 billion, up 40% versus last year and 20% sequentially. Carrier now expects full-year data center revenue of $2 billion, up from a prior $1.5 billion outlook and the company’s second straight year of doubling sales in that vertical. CFO Patrick Goris pegged the 2026 exit rate at north of $2.5 billion annualized, the reason Carrier is building a new U.S. plant to keep pace.
That growth came with a cost. EBITDA margin of 22.19% fell 207 basis points year over year, and EBIT margin of 17.24% dropped 183 basis points, as tariff pricing lagged the tariffs themselves and unfavorable mix in Europe and North American new construction weighed on profit. GAAP EPS of $0.60 missed the $0.71 estimate by 14.96%, a reminder that the adjusted beat masks real cost pressure still working through the business. Investors weighing Carrier stock now have to balance a demand story that keeps building against a cost structure still catching up.
CEO David Gitlin did not dress up the shortfall. Addressing the segment margin decline and a leadership change in Carrier’s European business on the Q2 earnings call, he said: “In terms of this next chapter, we really have to do a better job on both price and cost, to state the obvious.” Carrier named Thomas Donato, formerly of Rockwell Automation, ABB and Bosch, as the new head of that segment, tasked with pushing operating margins back toward the mid-teens over the next few years.
Residential and light commercial demand also turned. CSA Resi sales rose 9%, prompting Carrier to raise its full-year outlook to high single-digit growth, while Light Commercial guidance moved from flat to high single digits as field inventory fell 20% year over year. Carrier stock now carries a raised guide built on demand strength, even as the margin math still needs fixing.
Carrier’s backlog just topped $8 billion, mostly booked before 2027 even starts. Explore CARR stock on TIKR for free →
TIKR Values Carrier Stock at $99, Pricing In a Data Center-Driven Margin Recovery
TIKR’s mid-case model values Carrier Global at $99 by December 2030, implying 61% total return from the current price of $62, or 11% annualized over 4.4 years.
An 11% annualized return over more than four years puts Carrier stock ahead of a typical industrial holding, still priced well below its own model-implied value.
That gap closes as the data center backlog converts to revenue, since Carrier already has next year’s $2.5 billion annualized data center run rate locked into contracted demand. The bigger swing factor is the margin recovery Gitlin and Donato are now chasing, and closing even part of that 183 basis point EBIT gap pushes earnings power well past the current guide.
TIKR’s model sees Carrier stock reaching $99 by 2030, a 61% total return. Review CARR stock on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Carrier Global Corporation?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Carrier Global Corporation stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Carrier Global Corporation alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze CARR stock on TIKR for Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
