Key Stats for APLD Stock
- 52-Week Range: $4.20 to $42.27
- Current Price: $33.67
- Street Mean Target: ~$54
- Street High Target: $97
- Expected Next Earnings: On or around July 29, 2026
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Applied Digital’s Q3 Fiscal 2026 Earnings: The Beat That Keeps Getting Bigger
Applied Digital (APLD) designs, builds, and operates high-performance data centers for AI workloads. The model is straightforward: find land with cheap, reliable power, build facilities capable of handling the heat and density AI computing requires, and lease that capacity to hyperscalers on long-term contracts.
Q3 fiscal 2026 came in at $126.6 million in revenue, beating estimates of $78.5 million by 61% and growing 139% year over year. EBITDA of $44.1 million beat by 173%. Adjusted EPS of $0.09 beat expectations of negative $0.21 by 143%.
What makes these numbers more interesting than a single quarter beat is the trend. Five quarters ago, APLD missed revenue estimates by 16%. Then beat by 2%, then by 41%, then by 56%, then by 61%. The estimates keep moving up, and APLD keeps running ahead of them.
The operational highlight is Polaris Forge 1, Applied Digital’s first 100-megawatt, direct-to-chip, liquid-cooled data center in Ellendale, North Dakota, now fully operational and contributing a full quarter of revenue for the first time. Two additional 150 megawatt buildings are under construction at the same site. Polaris Forge 2, a 200 megawatt hyperscaler campus, is on track for 2026.
Delta Forge 1, a 300 megawatt AI factory in the southern US, broke ground during the quarter with operations expected in mid-2027. Management is also in advanced discussions with another investment-grade hyperscaler covering approximately 900 megawatts across multiple sites.
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What Wall Street Is Saying About APLD Right Now
The shift in analyst sentiment over the past year is striking. The mean price target was $12 in February 2025. It is $54 today, with a high of $97. The stock at $33.67 sits well below both, even after a 615% one-year return.
The bull case is straightforward. Applied Digital has one of the few operational 100-megawatt direct-to-chip liquid-cooled facilities in the world, a 1-gigawatt development pipeline, and a long-term NOI target of $1 billion within five years, which becomes more credible with every quarter of execution.
The bear case centers on customer concentration and balance sheet risk. CoreWeave is the primary tenant at Polaris Forge 1, and Applied Digital carries $1.1 billion in net debt financed through senior secured notes and preferred equity from Macquarie. The capital structure works as long as construction stays on schedule and tenants pay. Any slippage creates real pressure.
APLD Stock Financials: Revenue Is Scaling, Margins Are a Work in Progress
Revenue has grown from $8.6 million in fiscal 2022 to $144.2 million in fiscal 2025, with the trajectory clearly accelerating as new facilities come online. Gross margins have improved from negative 11% in 2022 to nearly 30% in fiscal 2025. Operating margins remain deeply negative at around -28 %, driven by depreciation, interest expense, and ongoing construction costs.
The consensus forward two-year EBITDA CAGR is around 147%. If gross margins continue to move toward 40% and beyond as the company scales, the operating leverage story becomes very real. The proprietary waterless cooling technology and early mover advantage in securing power-rich land are what differentiate Applied Digital from the growing field of AI neocloud operators.
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Should You Invest in Applied Digital Corporation?
Applied Digital is building AI infrastructure at a scale and speed that most competitors cannot match, and the Q3 results showed the execution is real. The stock, sitting 20% below its 52-week high despite that backdrop, is a setup worth paying attention to.
The risks around customer concentration and balance sheet leverage are genuine and should not be dismissed. Add APLD to your TIKR watchlist, track gross margin progression and new contract announcements closely, and use the expected Q4 earnings around July 29 as the next major checkpoint. TIKR gives you the tools to follow every development in one place. Start your own analysis of APLD alongside every other stock on your radar with a free TIKR account.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
