Key Stats for Xometry Stock
- 52-Week Range: $18.7 to $73.9
- Current Price: $42.8
- Street High Target: $75
What Happened?
Xometry, Inc. (XMTR), an AI-native marketplace that digitizes the pricing, sourcing, and fulfillment of custom manufacturing, delivered its first full year of EBITDA profitability in 2025 while accelerating revenue growth, with the stock currently trading at $42.80 — well below its 52-week high of $73.87.
Q4 2025 marketplace revenue grew 33% year-over-year to $178.5M, driven by expanding enterprise engagement as accounts with at least $500,000 in trailing spend surpassed 140, up 40% from roughly 100 a year prior.
XMTR’s marketplace gross margin expanded 80 basis points year-over-year to 35.3% in Q4, up from 25% four years ago, as the company’s AI pricing algorithms improve with each incremental data point added by its growing network of 81,821 active buyers and ~5,000 active suppliers.
Randolph Altschuler, CEO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “our revenue growth and profitability accelerated as 2025 progressed, and we are encouraged by our strong start to 2026,” then announced a planned CEO succession effective July 1 with President Sanjeev Singh Sahni taking the role.
XMTR’s $1B revenue path is backed by a 21%-plus full-year 2026 revenue guide, a commitment to at least 20% incremental adjusted EBITDA margins annually, and a $250M convertible note refinancing at 0.75% that extended its debt maturity to 2030.
Wall Street’s Take on XMTR Stock
Xometry’s Q4 beat and raised 2026 guide establish that its EBITDA inflection is structural, not cyclical, with four consecutive quarters of positive and growing EBITDA margins confirming that marketplace operating leverage is compounding.
XMTR’s adjusted EBITDA surged from -$9.7M in 2024 to $18.5M in 2025, and consensus estimates project that figure reaching $50M in 2026 — a 160.5% jump — as marketplace gross margins continue expanding and operating expenses grow at half the rate of revenue.
Six of nine analysts rate XMTR a buy or outperform against four holds and zero sells, with a mean price target of $62.33 — implying 45.6% upside from the April 6 close of $42.80 — as Wall Street waits for the company to demonstrate that its enterprise momentum translates into sustained free cash flow generation.
Trading at roughly 42x forward EV/EBITDA against a consensus EBITDA growth rate of 160% in 2026 and 68% in 2027, and sitting 28% below its December 2025 peak despite a raised full-year guide, XMTR stock appears undervalued for investors with a multi-year horizon willing to look past near-term macro uncertainty.
The risk is macro deterioration — a manufacturing demand slowdown would compress order volume and delay the timeline to free cash flow breakeven, which management currently targets at approximately $225M in quarterly revenue run rate.
The next confirmation comes in the Q1 2026 earnings report, where $187M to $189M in revenue and $6.5M to $7.5M in adjusted EBITDA are the numbers to watch.
XMTR Financials
XMTR’s total revenue grew from $220M in 2021 to $690M in 2025, a compound run that reflects the marketplace’s steady displacement of offline custom manufacturing procurement across aerospace, defense, electronics, and automotive verticals.
Revenue growth accelerated from 17.7% in 2024 to 25.9% in 2025, driven by deepening enterprise penetration and international expansion, confirming the marketplace is gaining rather than losing momentum at scale.
Gross margins expanded from 26.2% in 2021 to 39.1% in 2025, a 1,290-basis-point improvement over four years as Xometry’s AI pricing algorithms compounded efficiency gains with each incremental buyer and supplier added to the network.
The unresolved tension is operating income, still negative at -$40M in 2025 despite the gross margin expansion, as SG&A and R&D spending of $320M continues to outpace gross profit of $270M — the case for profitability rests entirely on operating leverage closing that gap.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model prices XMTR at $61.16 by December 2030 under mid-case assumptions, embedding a 16.3% revenue CAGR and 26.4% EPS CAGR through the forecast period, supported by the same enterprise penetration and marketplace margin expansion already visible in the 2025 results.
XMTR appears undervalued at current levels, trading at $42.80 against a mid-case intrinsic value of $61.16 — a 43% discount that widens further under the high-case assumption of $91.17, implying the market is pricing in near-zero execution on an enterprise growth trajectory that is already compounding at 40%-plus annually.
XMTR’s investment case hinges on whether its EBITDA inflection is durable enough to justify a premium multiple as the company scales toward $1B in revenue.
Bull Case
- Marketplace revenue sustains 27%-plus growth through 2026 as enterprise accounts above $500K cross 200
- EBITDA margins expand to 5.8% in 2026 and 8.2% in 2027, in line with consensus
- Free cash flow turns positive at the $225M quarterly run rate, validating the asset-light model
- Stock re-rates toward the $62.33 mean target, delivering 45% upside from current levels
Bear Case
- Macro deterioration compresses order volume, pushing the $1B revenue milestone and FCF breakeven further out
- Operating losses persist as EBIT remains negative through 2027 at -$20M
- CEO transition creates execution risk during a critical enterprise growth phase
- Stock remains range-bound near $42.80, with limited catalyst until FCF inflection becomes visible
Should You Invest in Xometry, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up XMTR stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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