Key Stats for SPX Stock
- 52-Week Range: $115 to $246.7
- Current Price: $203.4
- Street High Target: $281
What Happened?
SPX Technologies (SPXC), a diversified industrial company operating HVAC cooling and heating systems alongside detection and measurement equipment for infrastructure markets, delivered record FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $507.4 million — up 20.5% — and now trades at $197.29, down roughly 20% from its 52-week high of $246.68 despite guiding to another 20% EBITDA growth in 2026.
Q4 2025 revenue rose 19.4% to $637.3 million, beating the $626 million consensus estimate, with adjusted EPS of $1.88 edging past the $1.87 estimate, driven by the KTS and Sigma & Omega acquisitions alongside 10.3% organic HVAC growth.
The headline catalyst heading into 2026 is data center cooling: SPXC’s data center revenue — generated through cooling towers and the newly launched OlympusMAX product, a large-scale external heat rejection system — grew to approximately $200 million in FY2025, representing roughly 9% of revenue, and management guided for approximately 50% growth to around 12% of revenue in 2026, with $700 million of incremental capacity coming online across two new facilities in Tennessee and Madison, Alabama by 2028.
Eugene Lowe, President and CEO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “if anything, I’m feeling more bullish than I was on our last earnings call” about OlympusMAX, citing awards with three customers, $50 million in bookings converted to 2026 revenue, and at least one hyperscaler that has already locked up multiple years of growing demand.
A record Detection & Measurement backlog of $350 million (up 43% organically year-over-year), a pipeline of additional HVAC acquisitions at approximately 1x net debt to EBITDA post-closing, and $100 million of capacity CapEx in 2026 alone position SPX for compounding revenue growth through 2028 and beyond.
In Q1 2026, SPX completed two acquisitions that materially scale its HVAC platform: Thermolec, a Montreal-based electric duct heating manufacturer with approximately $35 million in annual revenue, and Air Enterprises and Rahn Industries — the commercial air-handling segment of Crawford United — acquired for approximately $300 million and adding roughly $80 million in combined annual revenue serving healthcare, institutional, and data center customers.
Wall Street’s Take on SPXC Stock
SPXC’s 20% EBITDA growth in FY2025 was not a recovery story — it was execution on a platform that is still in the early innings of its data center buildout, with capacity constraints currently limiting revenue that hyperscaler demand is already willing to absorb.
SPXC’s FY2026E normalized EPS of $7.83 implies 15.8% growth over FY2025’s $6.76, supported by $2.535 billion to $2.605 billion in guided revenue — a range credible because nearly half of HVAC segment growth in 2026 is expected to come directly from facilities already under construction, not from new orders still being won.
Data center revenue growing roughly 50% to approximately $270 million in 2026, OlympusMAX bookings converting to recognized revenue, and Thermolec and Air Enterprises contributing approximately $110 million in combined revenue for 11 months of ownership collectively make the growth case less dependent on macro conditions than the current stock price implies.
The primary risk is execution timing: the Madison, Alabama facility will not reach full production until 2027, the Tennessee TAMCO facility only begins ramping at the end of Q1, and a $20 million Detection & Measurement project pulled forward into 2025 creates a direct headwind in the back half of 2026 that compresses the D&M growth rate to roughly flat despite record backlog.
Ten analysts rate SPXC a Buy, 1 an Outperform, and 1 a Hold at the April 2 snapshot, with a mean target of $260.42 implying 32% upside from $197.29 — an unusually tight consensus skewed heavily bullish, with the street high of $281 and low of $225 suggesting analysts are debating the magnitude of upside, not the direction.
Trading at 25.2x FY2026E normalized EPS of $7.83, SPX sits at a meaningful discount to its own recent trading range — the stock traded at 31x forward earnings as recently as February — despite a guidance raise, two accretive acquisitions, and a data center growth vector that management described as accelerating, leaving SPXC undervalued relative to the earnings trajectory now being built into the platform.
SPX Technologies Financial Performance
SPXC’s total revenues grew from $1.98 billion in FY2024 to $2.27 billion in FY2025 — a 14.2% increase — while operating income expanded only 8.8% to $350 million, reflecting integration and capacity investment costs compressing operating margins from 16.0% to 15.3%.
Gross margins held firm at 40.6% in FY2025, essentially flat with FY2024’s 40.4%, confirming that SPXC’s pricing power on engineered-to-order HVAC and detection products has not eroded despite rapid volume growth and two acquisitions closing mid-cycle.
Forward estimates project revenue climbing to $2.58 billion in FY2026, with EBITDA margins expanding from 22.4% to 23.6% — a trajectory consistent with management’s guidance of 20% adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint, and supported by operating leverage from the TAMCO and Madison facilities ramping through the year.
The margin compression from 16.0% in FY2024 to 15.3% in FY2025 at the operating income line is the one number worth watching: if plant startup costs in 2026 prove stickier than the guided 50 basis points of temporary drag, the operating leverage story gets pushed further into 2027 and the gap between EBITDA growth and EPS growth widens.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model assigns a mid-case target of $260.65 by December 2030 at a 6% annualized IRR, built on 8% EPS CAGR and modest P/E compression of 2.4% per year — a return profile that captures the capacity ramp but does not assume hyperscaler demand accelerates beyond current guidance assumptions.
SPXC appears undervalued at current levels, with the mid-case implying 32.1% total return through earnings growth alone while the stock trades roughly 20% below its 52-week high on no fundamental deterioration.
If tariffs on steel and aluminum escalate materially or hyperscaler CapEx commitments slow, SPXC’s configured-to-order pricing model provides a partial buffer, but a demand deceleration in data center cooling would directly impair the $700 million capacity investment thesis before the facilities reach full production.
When Q2 earnings report, watch HVAC segment backlog — currently $585 million and up 22% organically — for confirmation that OlympusMAX bookings and Air Enterprises integration are tracking against the $1.8 billion to $1.84 billion full-year revenue guide.
Should You Invest in SPX Technologies, Inc.?
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