Key Stats for Meta Stock
- Current Price: $574.46
- Target Price (Mid): $1,133.18
- Street Target: $860.25
- Potential Total Return: +97.3%
- Annualized IRR: 15.4% / year
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What Happened?
Meta Platforms (META) hit a closing high of $796.25 in August 2025, surged again after a strong Q4 earnings report, then gave it all back. At $574.46 as of April 2, 2026, the stock has fallen 27.28% from that peak and is down more than 20% year to date.
Bulls point to 22% revenue growth and an AI advertising engine already generating measurable returns. Bears are focused on the free cash flow compression from Meta’s record infrastructure spending and a new wave of child safety litigation that has reset the legal risk calculus for the entire social media sector.
The event that broke the stock in late March was a pair of consecutive court defeats.
A New Mexico jury ordered Meta to pay $375 million in damages after ruling the company failed to protect children from online predators on Facebook and Instagram. A day later, a Los Angeles jury found Meta’s platform design a “substantial factor” in causing mental health harm to a young plaintiff.
Shares fell 8% on the day of the verdicts.
The financial penalties are manageable.
What rattled the market was the legal theory behind them: both cases targeted algorithmic design features like infinite scroll rather than user-generated content, threatening the Section 230 protections that have long shielded tech platforms from liability.
A second phase of the New Mexico case begins in May, and a federal trial in Northern California is expected this summer.
Meta’s underlying business posted one of its strongest quarters on record. Q4 2025 revenue of $59.9 billion beat estimates by 2.43%, and adjusted EPS of $8.88 beat consensus by 8.60%.
On the Q4 2025 earnings call, CEO Mark Zuckerberg described 2026 as a year when AI infrastructure investments would begin showing up in results, while CFO Susan Li indicated that despite a sharp capex increase, Meta expects 2026 operating income to exceed 2025 levels.
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Is Meta Undervalued Today?
At $574.46, Meta trades at 18.97x next-twelve-months earnings and 10.27x NTM EV/EBITDA, among the lowest forward multiples the stock has carried in years.
For a business growing revenue at 22% with 82% LTM gross margins, that looks like a significant discount.
Tencent, the closest global comparable by social reach and advertising scale, trades at 11.08x NTM EV/EBITDA and 14.05x NTM P/E. Reddit trades at 17.73x NTM EV/EBITDA and 20.34x NTM P/E despite a fraction of Meta’s profitability. Pinterest sits at 6.79x NTM EV/EBITDA, reflecting a much narrower monetization profile.
Meta’s 10.27x NTM EV/EBITDA sits just above Tencent and well below Reddit, at a company generating operating margins and free cash flow that neither peer approaches.
The core business makes that projection credible.
Meta’s Family of Apps segment generated $198,759 million in revenue and $102,469 million in operating income in FY2025.
The Reality Labs segment, which covers VR and AR research, posted an operating loss of $19,193 million in the same period.
That loss is real, but it is discretionary. Strip it out, and Meta’s core social platforms trade at roughly 14x FY2025 operating profit, a multiple that is difficult to justify selling at 22% revenue growth.
The regulatory dimension is harder to model. Australia became the first country to restrict social media access for teens under 16 in December 2025, with countries across Europe and East Asia considering similar measures.
Any legislation that meaningfully reduces teen engagement would directly affect Meta’s advertising revenue. That tail risk is real and partly explains the current discount. It does not, by itself, explain a 27% decline in a company posting 22% top-line growth.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $574.46
- Target Price (Mid): $1,133.18
- Potential Total Return: +97.3%
- Annualized IRR: 15.4% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Meta stock (It’s free!) >>>
The TIKR mid-case model applies a 15.6% revenue CAGR and a 33.0% net income margin to reach a target of $1,133.18. The two primary revenue drivers are AI-powered advertising monetization across the Family of Apps and international expansion, particularly in Asia-Pacific, where Meta’s segment revenue grew from $26,659 million in FY2024 to $53,817 million in FY2025. The margin driver is operating leverage on the core ad platform, which has held LTM gross margins at 82.0% through the capex ramp.
The primary risk is that the capex cycle extends without proportionate revenue acceleration, pushing out the FCF recovery TIKR models for 2027 and 2028. The low case produces an 8.8% IRR at a $1,197.47 target. The high case reaches $2,253.26 at 16.9% if revenue CAGR accelerates to 17.2% and net income margins expand to 34.8%.
Conclusion: The metric to watch at Q1 2026 earnings on April 29 is operating margin. CFO Susan Li guided for 2026 operating income to exceed FY2025’s $83,276 million. If Q1 margins hold above 38% despite the capex ramp, the bull case for the year remains intact. If they compress materially, the FCF recovery timeline extends.
Meta is the world’s largest advertising platform trading near a multi-year low multiple because investors are simultaneously pricing in the worst of a legal cycle and a capex cycle. The TIKR model suggests that the combination has created a meaningful gap between today’s price and long-term value.
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Should You Invest in Meta?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Meta, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Meta alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
