Key Stats: Hasbro (HAS) Q1 2026 Earnings
- Current Price: ~$89 (May 20, 2026 close: $88.60, down ~9% on earnings day)
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $1.0B, up 13% year-over-year
- Q1 2026 Adjusted Operating Profit: $287M, up 29% year-over-year
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS: $1.47, up 41% year-over-year
- Full-Year Revenue Guidance: +3% to +5% constant-currency growth
- Full-Year Adjusted Operating Margin Guidance: 24% to 25%
- Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: $1.40B to $1.45B
- TIKR Model Price Target: ~$124
- Implied Upside: ~40%
Hasbro Stock Posts a 13% Revenue Beat on MAGIC’s Best Quarter Ever
Hasbro (HAS) posted Q1 2026 revenue of $1.0B, up 13% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $1.47, up 41%.
Wizards of the Coast drove the result, with segment revenue growing 26% to $582M, according to Gina Goetter, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer, on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Wizards operating profit reached $298M at a 51% operating margin, up 140 basis points year-over-year, absorbing higher royalty and operating expense on the back of product mix and scale.
MAGIC was the engine: Lorwyn Eclipsed became the best-selling MAGIC Premier set of all time, and backlist set a quarterly record, according to CEO Chris Cocks on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Secrets of Strixhaven, released in Q2, has already surpassed Lorwyn Eclipsed as the largest MAGIC Premier set ever, according to Cocks.
Digital and Licensing revenue was up 3%, with Monopoly Go! contributing $41M in line with expectations, according to Goetter on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Consumer Products revenue was $398M, essentially flat year-over-year, with toy and game volume growth offset by a licensing decline against a difficult prior-year comparable.
Consumer Products posted an adjusted operating loss of $41M, roughly $10M wider year-over-year on higher royalty expense, incremental tariffs, and the prior-year licensing strength that is no longer present as a tailwind.
A cybersecurity incident at the end of March is expected to delay $40M to $60M of Consumer Products revenue from Q2 into Q3, with approximately $20M in one-time remediation expenses in 2026, according to Goetter on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Full-year guidance was maintained: consolidated revenue growth of 3% to 5% on a constant-currency basis, adjusted operating margins of 24% to 25%, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.40B to $1.45B.
Hasbro returned $99M to shareholders via dividend and initiated share repurchases under its newly authorized repurchase program, while issuing $400M in new notes to refinance November 2026 maturities and reduce higher-rate debt.
HAS Stock Operating Margin Hits 28% as Wizards Absorbs Royalty Pressure and Scales
Hasbro stock is showing a margin profile that has rebuilt sharply over the past year after bottoming in Q4 2024.
Gross margin ran at 68% in Q4 2024, then came in at 70% in Q1 2025 before compressing to 68% and 60% in Q2 and Q3 2025, respectively.
In Q4 2025 gross margin fell further to 60%, then recovered to 68% in Q1 2026, back in line with the Q1 2025 peak.
Operating income moved from $200M in Q1 2025 to $220M in Q2, $340M in Q3, and $300M in Q4 before reaching $280M in Q1 2026.
Operating margin followed a similar arc: 22% in Q1 2025, 23% in Q2, 25% in Q3, 21% in Q4, and 28% in Q1 2026, the highest reading in the eight-quarter window shown.
The 28% operating margin in Q1 2026 was up 360 basis points versus Q1 2025, driven by favorable business mix toward Wizards and ongoing cost savings, according to Goetter on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Cost transformation efforts delivered $37M in gross savings in the quarter, keeping Hasbro on track for its full-year commitment of $150M, according to Goetter.
TIKR Prices HAS at $124 but P/E Compression Is Already Baked Into the Mid Case
TIKR’s valuation model prices Hasbro stock at ~$124, implying roughly 40% upside from the current price of ~$89, realized by December 2030.
The mid-case assumption embeds a revenue CAGR of 2.8% from 2025 through 2035, a net income margin of 17.6%, and EPS growth of 3.6% annually, against a P/E multiple compression of 1.0% per year — meaning the model requires modest multiple contraction to arrive at the target, limiting the upside from re-rating even if execution is clean.
The low case ($122, 37% total return, 3.7% IRR) and high case ($170, 92% total return, 7.9% IRR) reflect a tight band on revenue growth assumptions (2.5% to 3.1%) but a wider spread on margin (16.7% to 18.3%), signaling that profitability execution is the primary lever on shareholder returns.
The Q1 result strengthens the mid-case foundation: Wizards is delivering both the revenue growth and margin expansion the model needs, and cost discipline is tracking ahead of the full-year commitment.
The risk to the model is back-half weighted: oil-related cost pressure of approximately $30M, the cyber incident revenue shift, and tougher Q4 Wizards compares could compress margins in the period that matters most for full-year delivery.
The investment question for Hasbro stock is whether Wizards can sustain momentum through a tougher back half while Consumer Products absorbs cost pressure and a delayed cyber recovery simultaneously.
Wizards enters the back half with legitimate momentum: Secrets of Strixhaven has already surpassed Lorwyn Eclipsed as the largest MAGIC Premier set ever, Q2 is shaping up as a strong quarter on the Marvel Super Heroes launch, and the $150M cost transformation program is running on track to absorb the approximately $30M oil-cost headwind hitting freight, resin, and packaging in Q3 and Q4.
The cyber incident is the wildcard that makes the full-year guide harder to trust at face value: if the $40M to $60M of delayed Consumer Products revenue doesn’t fully land in Q3 as guided, and Wizards Q4 comps turn negative as Cocks signaled they might, the two softest segments of the business are simultaneously at risk in the same quarter.
Longer term, the model’s 17.6% net income margin assumption rests on Wizards sustaining its current mix dominance, but MAGIC Arena is a shrinking share of total MAGIC revenue, the tariff refund claim of approximately $50M has no timeline, and the broader digital monetization pivot toward collectibility and multiplayer formats is a multi-year build that won’t show up in near-term numbers.
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