Key Stats for ONON Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 10%
- 52-Week Range: $31 to $61
- Valuation Model Target Price: around $71
- Implied Upside: about 90%
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What Happened?
On Holding AG stock rose about 10% this week, finishing near $37 per share as investors reacted to a cleaner growth story for the premium athletic brand. The market had been looking for proof that On could keep expanding through tariff pressure, uneven consumer spending, and tough competition from Nike, Adidas, and Hoka, the running brand owned by Deckers.
The stock moved higher because On delivered record Q1 sales, expanded margins, and raised its 2026 profitability outlook, showing that demand remains strong while the company protects its premium positioning. Q1 net sales reached CHF 831.9 million, up 26.4% at constant currency, while gross margin expanded to 64.2% and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 21%. That combination mattered because it showed On can absorb higher U.S. tariff pressure without sacrificing profitability.
This week’s earnings call also gave investors a clearer growth story beyond running shoes. Founder and Co-CEO Caspar Coppetti called Q1 “an outstanding quarter,” supported by broad strength across direct-to-consumer, wholesale, Asia-Pacific, and apparel. Direct-to-consumer sales, which include On’s own stores and website, rose 28.7% at constant currency, wholesale sales topped CHF 500 million for the first time, Asia-Pacific sales rose 61.4%, and apparel sales grew 57.5%.
Management also reiterated full-year constant-currency sales growth guidance of at least 23%, raised gross margin guidance to at least 64.5%, and lifted adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 19.5% to 20.0%, even while assuming 20% incremental tariff rates from Vietnam.
Analyst and filing updates added context, but earnings quality was the bigger story. Recent analyst commentary remained broadly positive, even as Wall Street stayed cautious on valuation, tariffs, and the consumer backdrop.
Recent filings showed mixed institutional activity, with RFG Advisory opening a new fourth-quarter stake of about 29,000 shares worth about $1 million, while Jennison Associates cut its stake by about 34% and retained about 2.7 million shares valued at roughly $125 million. Martin Hoffmann also sold about 4,000 shares under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan, but ONON’s weekly gain suggests investors focused more on the raised margin outlook and resilient growth story than on the insider sale.
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Is On Holding AG Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth: around 20%
- Operating Margins: around 15%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 20x
On Holding appears undervalued based on the TIKR valuation model, which estimates a target price of around $71 and implies about 90% upside over roughly 2.6 years.
The revenue growth assumption depends on On turning premium brand momentum into larger direct-to-consumer sales, faster Asia-Pacific expansion, stronger apparel adoption, and continued demand for newer product franchises like LightSpray and Cloudmonster.
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The margin assumption depends on the company keeping its full-price strategy intact, selling more through its own stores and website, and offsetting tariff pressure through pricing power and operating efficiency.
The 20x exit P/E multiple is lower than On’s recent historical valuation range in the TIKR model, so the upside case does not require the stock to return to its highest past multiple.
At current levels, On Holding looks undervalued, with the 2026 setup driven by international growth, direct-to-consumer expansion, apparel momentum, product innovation, and the company’s ability to gain share against Nike, Adidas, and Hoka without weakening the brand through heavy discounting.
How Much Upside Does ONON Stock Have From Here?
Investors can estimate On Holding AG’s potential share price, or what any stock could be worth, in under a minute using TIKR’s New Valuation Model tool.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
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