Key Stats for Xcel Stock
- 52-Week Range: $65.2 to $84.2
- Current Price: $80.7
- Street High Target: $95
What Happened?
Xcel Energy (XEL), a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving eight states, secured a landmark power supply agreement with Google for a 1,900 MW clean energy data center in Pine Island, Minnesota, pushing its total contracted data center capacity above 2 gigawatts while the stock trades at $80.74 near its 52-week high of $84.23.
On February 24, Xcel signed the Google electric service agreement, which includes a 300 MW Form Energy iron-air battery system (a long-duration storage technology that stores energy in iron and releases it during peak demand), with Google covering all new grid infrastructure costs and the deal pending Minnesota Public Utilities Commission review.
Full-year 2025 ongoing earnings of $3.80 per share marked the 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding initial guidance, with Q4 net income rising 22% to $567 million as electric segment revenue climbed 16.5% to $2.8 billion on surging commercial and industrial load in Xcel’s SPS and PSCo service territories.
Xcel also locked in supply chain certainty on February 3 by signing a Strategic Alliance Agreement with GE Vernova (GEV), the power equipment spinoff of General Electric, purchasing five additional F-class gas turbines and reserving multiple gigawatts of wind turbine capacity to support generation buildout through the 2030s.
Brian Van Abel, EVP and CFO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “we feel that we have clear conviction by essentially doubling our data center opportunity from 3 gigawatts to 6 gigawatts,” directly anchoring the company’s revised 2027 contracted capacity target to a data center pipeline that now underpins incremental capital deployment well beyond the base $60 billion, five-year investment plan.
Xcel’s competitive position over the next three to five years rests on three converging forces: a 6-gigawatt data center contracting target by end of 2027 supported by the NextEra Energy co-development MOU signed February 4, a $10 billion-plus incremental investment pipeline beyond its base capital plan, and a 9% average annual EPS growth trajectory through 2030 anchored to the $4.04 to $4.16 guidance already reaffirmed for 2026.
Wall Street’s Take on XEL Stock
The Google data center agreement signed February 24, which commits 1,900 MW of new clean energy to Xcel’s Minnesota grid with all infrastructure costs covered by Google, directly strengthens the 2026 revenue growth case as the electric service agreement heads to the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission for approval.
Xcel Energy’s 2025 ongoing normalized EPS of $3.80 already reflected an 8.6% increase over 2024, and TIKR estimates see that figure reaching $4.11 in 2026 and $5.84 by 2030, a trajectory anchored by the $60 billion, five-year capital plan and a doubling of contracted data center capacity to 6 gigawatts by end of 2027.
Thirteen analysts carry buy ratings on XEL, three rate it outperform, and only one holds, with the mean price target at $89.53, implying roughly 10.9% upside from the current $80.74, as the Street positions for the NextEra co-development pipeline and the Google ESA to materialize into capital deployment visibility by the Q3 2026 update.
The spread between the low analyst target of $73.00 and the high of $95.00 reflects a binary read on regulatory timing: the low end prices in Colorado rate case delays and Smokehouse Creek liability risk, while the high end assumes the large load tariff filing in early Q2 and NSP’s 4,100 MW renewables RFP proceed on schedule.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case model prices XEL at $122.94 by December 2030, embedding an 8.7% EPS CAGR and EBITDA margin expansion from 37.7% to 47.8%, driven by the GE Vernova turbine orders and the 6-gigawatt data center contracting program ramping into revenue in the late 2020s.
At 19.6x 2026 estimated normalized EPS of $4.11, XEL trades modestly below the roughly 20x NTM multiple it carried just three months ago, even as the EPS CAGR is accelerating rather than decelerating, making the stock undervalued relative to its own recent multiple history given an 8.7% mid-case EPS CAGR through 2030.
The TIKR mid-case target of $122.94 and 9.3% annualized IRR are grounded in a 7.4% revenue CAGR supported by the Google ESA, the NextEra MOU, and the $60 billion capital plan, each of which converts contracted megawatts into rate base that earns regulated returns.
Management’s statement that Xcel expects to deliver 9% average EPS growth through 2030 confirms the acceleration is structural, not cyclical, and that the data center pipeline is already embedded in the financial plan rather than treated as upside.
Colorado rate case underearnings remain the key model risk: significant ROE shortfalls in Colorado persist until the commission decision expected by end of Q3 2026, and a delayed or unfavorable ruling compresses the 2026 and 2027 EPS ramp.
The Q3 2026 capital plan update is the single most important catalyst to watch, as management has confirmed it will include a revised five-year sales forecast reflecting the 6-gigawatt data center target and the first formal view of incremental generation capital tied to the NextEra co-development pipeline.
Should You Invest in Xcel Energy Inc.?
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Pull up XEL stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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