Key Takeaways:
- Hims & Hers is still growing fast, with 2025 revenue up 59% to about $2.35 billion and subscribers above 2.5 million.
- HIMS stock could reasonably reach $37 per share by December 2028, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 78.3% from today’s price of $21, with an annualized return of 23.3% over the next 2.7 years.
What Happened?
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) has become one of the market’s biggest debates in digital health. The company is still growing fast, but investors are reassessing the stock because its weight-loss business now sits in the middle of a regulatory and pricing fight. GLP-1 drugs are prescription medicines used for obesity and diabetes, and they have become one of the most important drivers of consumer health demand.
The biggest recent positive catalyst came in March. Novo Nordisk agreed to sell FDA-approved Wegovy and Ozempic through the Hims platform, ending a legal dispute and sending Hims shares up more than 40% that day. Later in March, HIMS said a broader assortment of Novo’s FDA-approved GLP-1 medicines had become available on its platform, including the Wegovy pill.
But the market is still cautious because the same category created the stock’s biggest risk. Reuters reported in February that HIMS launched a $49 compounded Wegovy pill, and Reuters later reported that FDA and legal pressure around compounded semaglutide remained unresolved.
Compounded drugs are customized versions made by pharmacies, and the issue is whether those products stay inside U.S. rules as branded supply improves.
The broader market also got harder at the end of March. Novo launched discounted self-pay Wegovy subscriptions, which increases pricing pressure across telehealth obesity channels and makes branded access more competitive.
Here’s why Hims & Hers stock could still produce strong returns through 2028: the company is growing quickly, expanding internationally, and shifting from compounded supply toward branded and more durable care offerings, even as investors wait for clearer regulatory visibility.
What the Model Says for HIMS Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Hims & Hers Health stock using valuation assumptions based on its rapid revenue growth, improving profitability, and expanding role in weight loss, diagnostics, and personalized care.
Based on estimates of 15.6% annual revenue growth, 6.7% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 17.1x, the model projects Hims & Hers Health stock could rise from $21 to $37 per share.
That would be a 78.3% total return, or a 23.3% annualized return over the next 2.7 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for HIMS stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 15.6%
Hims is still one of the fastest-growing businesses in digital health. Full-year 2025 revenue rose 59% to about $2.35 billion, and fourth-quarter revenue rose 28% to $617.8 million. That kind of scale matters because it shows the platform is attracting more users across several categories, not just one breakout product.
Management is also showing that customer growth remains healthy. Subscribers rose to more than 2.5 million in 2025, up 13% from a year earlier. Andrew Dudum said the company is aiming to become the global leader in consumer health, which fits with the company’s push into international markets and broader care categories.
The next growth debate is about mix, not just size. Weight loss is still important, but Hims is also expanding through diagnostics, international markets, and new treatment categories after agreeing to acquire Eucalyptus for up to $1.15 billion and after earlier moves like YourBio.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use a 15.6% revenue growth forecast because Hims is still growing well above most healthcare platforms, but the market now wants proof that growth stays durable as the GLP-1 business changes.
2. Operating Margins: 6.7%
Margins are the key reason this valuation works. Hims posted a 5.2% LTM EBIT margin, which is not high, but it is a major improvement from the large losses it posted a few years ago. That shift matters because investors now see a path to a real earnings model instead of endless reinvestment.
Recent results support that view. Full-year 2025 net income was $128 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $318 million, up from $177 million in 2024. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose to $66.3 million, even though gross margin fell to 72% from 77% a year earlier.
That margin pressure is important. Branded GLP-1 access may be more durable, but it can also change economics compared with earlier compounded offerings, while acquisitions and fulfillment buildout add cost.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use a 6.7% operating margin assumption because Hims has already crossed into profitability, but it still needs to balance growth, regulation, and product mix carefully.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 17.1x
The exit multiple in the model is much lower than Hims traded at during peak enthusiasm. That is important because it means the valuation does not assume the market returns to the most aggressive sentiment period. Instead, it assumes investors eventually price Hims more like a scaled growth business with some healthcare and consumer platform risk.
There are reasons for caution. Analyst sentiment has cooled sharply, and the latest street target in your materials is only about $24, while the stock’s six-month decline shows how quickly enthusiasm can fade when regulation changes. The market is also watching whether telehealth obesity care becomes more competitive as Novo and Lilly lean harder into direct and self-pay channels.
Still, Hims has real strengths that support a normalized premium multiple. The company has a large subscriber base, strong gross margins, and a consumer brand that sits on top of recurring online relationships.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we maintain a 17.1x exit multiple because Hims is no longer an early-stage story, but it still deserves some premium if it keeps compounding revenue and protects profitability through this transition.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for HIMS stock through 2035 show varied outcomes based on weight-loss execution, regulatory clarity, and margin discipline (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: GLP-1 pressure stays intense, and profitability expands slowly → 8.0% annual returns
- Mid Case: Hims scales branded weight-loss care, diagnostics, and international growth → 12.2% annual returns
- High Case: Subscriber growth stays strong, margins improve faster, and new care categories scale well → 16.2% annual returns
Going forward, HIMS stock will likely trade on three key questions. Investors will focus on the May 4 earnings report to see whether revenue growth and margins are holding up after the recent GLP-1 transition.
They will also watch whether the company’s branded partnership with Novo Nordisk helps create a more stable and durable business mix. Management also needs to show that Hims can evolve into a broader consumer health platform rather than relying too heavily on one fast-growing category.
See what analysts think about HIMS stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
Should You Invest in Hims & Hers Health, Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up HIMS, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track HIMS alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Analyze Hims & Hers stock on TIKR Free→
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
