Key Stats for ORCL Stock
- Year-to-Date Performance: -25%
- 52-Week Range: $119 to $346
- Valuation Model Target Price: $312
- Implied Upside: 112%
Analyze your favorite stocks like Oracle Corporation with TIKR (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Oracle Corporation stock is down about 25% year to date in 2026, trading near $147 per share as investors reassess the company’s shift from a traditional database business into a rapidly growing but more capital-intensive AI and cloud infrastructure provider.
The stock declined primarily because Oracle is aggressively investing in AI infrastructure, including data centers, chips, and cloud capacity, which is driving strong revenue growth but also pressuring near-term margins and free cash flow.
This matters because Oracle is increasingly being compared with larger cloud platforms like Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud, where heavy upfront spending is required before profits scale, leading to more cautious sentiment despite strong demand.
This month, Oracle reinforced its growth momentum following its latest earnings call, reporting that Q3 organic revenue and non-GAAP EPS both grew at least 20%, marking the first time in over 15 years both metrics reached that level.
Multicloud database revenue surged 531% year over year, while AI infrastructure revenue rose 243%, with management noting that “demand continues to exceed supply” and RPO reached $553 billion.
Clay Magouyrk highlighted that Oracle is converting large AI contracts into recurring revenue, supported by over $29 billion in new deals signed and more than 400 megawatts of capacity delivered during the quarter.
Institutional activity reflects mixed positioning as investors weigh long-term growth against near-term execution risks. Canoe Financial LP cut its stake by 88.8%, selling 457,320 shares, while Private Advisory Group LLC reduced its position by 88.4% and Spire Wealth Management trimmed holdings by 64.7%, indicating significant portfolio adjustments.
At the same time, Hennion & Walsh increased its stake by 18.3% to 28,951 shares, and Chesley Taft & Associates raised its position to 180,617 shares worth about $35.2 million.
New positions from MOR Wealth Management and Stillwater Capital Advisors suggest differing investor positioning as Oracle’s AI and cloud strategy continues to evolve.
Value Oracle Corporation instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Is ORCL Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 31%
- Operating Margins: 38.6%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 19.6x
Oracle’s growth is increasingly driven by Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), which provides computing power and storage used to run artificial intelligence models and enterprise applications.
As companies adopt AI, they need to process large amounts of data in the cloud, which directly increases demand for Oracle’s infrastructure and database services.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Oracle Corporation (It’s free) >>>
This demand is supported by large enterprise contracts, multicloud partnerships with companies like Microsoft and Google, and a rapidly growing backlog, which indicates strong future revenue visibility. While competitors like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure still lead in overall cloud scale, Oracle is gaining traction by offering integrated database and infrastructure solutions.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $312, implying about 112% total upside over the next 2.2 years, indicating the stock appears undervalued at current levels.
At current levels, Oracle appears undervalued, with future performance driven by AI infrastructure demand, backlog conversion into revenue, and margin expansion as its cloud business scales.
How Much Upside Does ORCL Stock Have From Here?
Investors can estimate Oracle Corporation’s potential share price, or what any stock could be worth, in under a minute using TIKR’s New Valuation Model tool.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
Value Oracle Corporation in under 60 seconds with TIKR (It’s free) >>>
