Key Stats for Walmart Stock
- 52-Week Range: $92 to $135
- Current Price: $131
- Street Mean Target: $137
- Street High Target: $150
- Analyst Consensus: 29 Buys / 9 Outperforms / 3 Holds / 1 Sell
- TIKR Model Target (Jan. 2031): $142
What Happened?
Walmart Inc. (WMT), the world’s largest retailer by store count and one of the first companies to surpass $700 billion in annual revenue, closed fiscal year 2026 with operating income growing more than twice as fast as sales.
Full-year constant currency revenue climbed roughly 5%, adding approximately $35 billion in top-line volume, while adjusted operating income grew 5.4% despite a 300 basis point headwind from elevated claims expense.
The quarter that closed the year showed the acceleration more clearly: consolidated revenue rose 4.9% in constant currency, and adjusted operating income grew 10.5%, with all three segments growing profits faster than sales.
E-commerce was the engine underneath it all, with global growth of 24% for the quarter and nearly 25% for the full fiscal year, pushing digital sales past $150 billion for the first time.
Walmart U.S. e-commerce specifically grew 27%, with 35% of store-fulfilled orders delivered in under three hours, a capability CEO John Furner called the center of the company’s omnichannel strategy.
The advertising business, now a primary profit driver, grew 37% globally in the quarter and reached $6.4 billion for the full year, with Walmart Connect in the U.S. accelerating to 41% growth.
Membership income reinforced the mix shift story, rising more than 15% consolidated, with Sam’s Club China growing over 35% and Walmart+ in the U.S. posting double-digit growth anchored by the OnePay Cash rewards credit card.
Together, advertising and membership fees represented nearly one-third of total operating income in the fiscal fourth quarter, a figure CFO John David Rainey called a defining shift in how the business earns money.
The consumer picture entering fiscal 2027 is stratified: households earning above $100,000 drove the majority of share gains again this quarter, while customers below $50,000 showed signs of paycheck-to-paycheck pressure, even as that cohort increasingly prioritizes convenience alongside price.
Walmart stock has climbed roughly 42% from its 52-week low of $92, and the guidance issued at Q4 suggests the re-rating has fundamental backing: fiscal 2027 constant currency sales growth is expected at 3.5% to 4.5%, with operating income guided to grow between 6% and 8% and EPS in the range of $2.75 to $2.85.
The company also authorized a $30 billion share repurchase program, its largest to date, funded by $42 billion in operating cash flow and 18% free cash flow growth in fiscal 2026.
On the supply chain side, capital spending on automation peaks in fiscal 2027, with approximately 60% of Walmart U.S. stores already receiving freight from automated distribution centers, a buildout the company expects to translate into SG&A leverage and lower marginal fulfillment costs.
Walmart opened its third U.S. milk processing facility in Robinson, Texas, a $350 million investment creating over 400 jobs and supplying more than 650 stores, part of a vertical integration push that now covers more than two-thirds of total U.S. product spend on items made, grown, or assembled domestically.
“Sparky is helping customers find the things they need, they want and they love,” said Dave Guggina, president of Walmart U.S., on the Q4 earnings call, pointing to average order values among Sparky users running roughly 35% higher than non-Sparky customers as early evidence that the company’s AI commerce agent is already changing basket economics.
Wall Street’s Take on WMT Stock
The fiscal fourth quarter confirmed what the prior three had suggested: Walmart stock is no longer a simple retail compounder, and the Street is still calibrating what that means for long-term earnings power.
EBITDA grew near 12% in the quarter ended January 31 to $12.45 billion, and the forward consensus projects around 8% to 9% growth over each of the next three quarters, driven by the same high-margin revenue lines (advertising, membership, fulfillment services) that have structurally widened operating income growth above the top-line rate for three consecutive years.
Of 41 analysts covering WMT, 29 carry Buy ratings, 9 rate it Outperform, 3 hold it neutral, and 1 rates it a Sell, with a mean price target of around $137, implying roughly 5% upside from current levels; the Street is primarily waiting on confirmation that the advertising and membership mix continues expanding as e-commerce densification proceeds through the supply chain automation cycle.
The high-end target of $150 reflects a bull case anchored in accelerating agentic commerce adoption and VIZIO’s non-endemic advertising monetization, while the $62 floor captures a scenario where operating income growth decelerates sharply on sustained oil-driven cost inflation.
The one development that breaks the model’s core assumption is a prolonged energy cost shock that bleeds into food price inflation faster than rollbacks and mix management can absorb, compressing gross margins precisely as capital spending peaks.
The single number to watch in the Q1 fiscal 2027 report: operating income growth against the 4% to 6% guided range, where any result above the midpoint confirms the margin expansion trajectory is intact.
Financials
Walmart’s Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of $190.66 billion grew approximately 6% year over year, the strongest quarterly top-line rate in the trailing eight quarters, as e-commerce mix and general merchandise share gains converged in the same period.
Gross profit of $47.04 billion in the quarter expanded 6.0% year over year, with gross margins holding at ~25%, as favorable business mix offset the tariff-related cost pressures Rainey flagged on the earnings call as a managed headwind rather than a structural drag.
Operating income reached $8.71 billion in Q4, growing near 11% year over year and expanding the operating margin to around 5%, the highest in the trailing eight quarters and a direct result of SG&A leverage appearing for the first time in several years as automation-related productivity improvements hit the income statement.
The trajectory across the eight trailing quarters confirms the operating leverage thesis: revenue growth has held in the 4% to 6% range, while operating income growth has run between 8% and 11% in the strongest periods, consistent with a business where incremental profit is accruing faster than incremental revenue as the digital mix widens.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model’s mid-case targets around $180 for WMT by fiscal 2031, built on a revenue CAGR of roughly 4%, net income margins expanding to around 4%, and EPS growth of around 7% annually: assumptions that map directly to the advertising and membership flywheel Walmart has already demonstrated over three consecutive fiscal years.
The investment case hinges on a single tension: whether the transition from low-margin grocery volume to high-margin digital revenue accelerates fast enough to sustain a multiple that already prices in the transformation.
Low Case: Revenue CAGR of around 4%, net income margins at 3.3%, EPS CAGR of around 6%, stock near $145 by fiscal 2031, total return around 11%.
- E-commerce profitability improvement stalls as oil-driven logistics costs pressure fulfillment economics ahead of the automation payoff
- Advertising growth decelerates to the low-to-mid teens as agentic commerce creates channel uncertainty that disrupts sponsored placement economics
- Sam’s Club membership growth flattens after the STAN fee increase benefit cycles through the base
- In-store comp sales remain flat to slightly negative, limiting the operating leverage available from the physical footprint
High Case: Revenue CAGR of around 5%, net income margins at around 4%, EPS CAGR of around 8%, stock near $217 by fiscal 2031, total return around 66%.
- Sparky integration with ChatGPT and Gemini drives general merchandise basket expansion well beyond the current 35% average order value premium
- VIZIO non-endemic advertising reaches meaningful scale, adding a high-margin profit stream with no incremental capex requirement
- Walmart+ membership crosses into new income cohorts as agentic shopping and pharmacy delivery prove out at scale
- Flipkart contributes to consolidated operating income for the first time as India e-commerce margins inflect toward positive
Should You Invest in Walmart Inc.?
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