Key Takeaways:
- Revenue Scale: MAIRE S.p.A. generated €6,900 million in LTM revenue, reflecting 39% growth driven by energy transition projects and technology licensing expansion.
- Earnings Efficiency: MAIRE S.p.A. delivered operating income of €310 million with a 5% operating margin, showing improving project execution and cost control.
- Price Projection: Based on current assumptions, MAIRE S.p.A. stock could reach €14 by 2029 from a current price near €8.
- Return Profile: This implies 61% total upside and a 13% annualized return over the next 4 years as earnings and dividends compound.
MAIRE S.p.A. provides engineering, procurement, and technology solutions for energy transition projects and generated about €6 billion in 2024 revenue as large EPC contracts and technology licensing expanded its global footprint.
The company recently completed a €8 million share buyback at an average price of €13, which signals capital discipline while supporting incentive plans without altering operating strategy.
MAIRE S.p.A. revenue grew about 39% year over year in 2024, reflecting strong order execution and backlog conversion as new projects moved from design into construction phases.
The 2024 operating margins of MAIRE S.p.A. reached 5% as higher-margin technology licensing and improved execution offset lower gross margins from large EPC contracts.
Even with revenue momentum and margins projected to rise toward 7%, the stock trades near 12x earnings, creating tension between execution progress and a valuation that implies limited upside.
What the Model Says for MAIRE Stock
The model links MAIRE’s EPC backlog and licensing mix to 10.6% revenue growth and operating margins improving to 6.5%.
Using an 11.8x exit P/E, the valuation framework projects MAIRE’s equity reaching €14.56 as execution offsets capital intensity.
That implies a 4.4% total return and a 2.2% annualized return over 1.9 years, ending at €14.56 with modest upside.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for MAIRE stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 10.6%
MAIRE expanded revenue by 39% in 2024 after large EPC awards converted into execution, following a five-year CAGR of 14% that reflects cyclical project timing rather than structural volatility.
Current execution benefits from a visible backlog and increased contribution from technology licensing, which stabilizes growth as EPC revenue normalizes after an exceptional expansion year.
Forward growth moderates as mega-project intake slows, but recurring engineering services and licensing contracts sustain volume progression without requiring aggressive order assumptions.
A 10.6% revenue growth assumption balances recent outsized expansion with a realistic normalization tied to backlog conversion and licensing visibility.
2. Operating Margins: 6.5%
MAIRE delivered operating margins of 5% in 2024, improving from 4% in 2022 as execution discipline and higher-margin technology activities offset lower EPC gross margins.
Margin expansion reflects a greater mix of Sustainable Technology Solutions, where licensing and process design generate structurally higher profitability than lump-sum construction contracts.
Cost control and project selectivity support gradual margin improvement, though margins remain capped by capital intensity and competitive EPC pricing.
An operating margins of 6.5% represent normalized improvement from recent levels without assuming a structural shift beyond observed mix and execution trends.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 11.8x
MAIRE currently trades near historical valuation levels, with recent multiples around 14x compressing as earnings growth normalizes after a strong cycle.
Over the past decade, the stock has commonly valued between 10x and 12x earnings during periods of steady execution without backlog acceleration.
Investor caution reflects EPC cyclicality and cash flow variability, even as technology exposure improves earnings quality and visibility.
Based on street consensus estimates, an 11.8x exit multiple reflects balanced expectations that profitability stabilizes without requiring renewed cycle-driven multiple expansion.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
MAIRE’s outcomes depend on EPC project execution quality, technology licensing mix, and cost discipline across cycles, creating a range of possible paths through 2029.
- Low Case: If EPC activity softens and licensing growth stays limited, revenue grows around 5.5% and margins stay near 4.2% → -1.2% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With backlog conversion and licensing performing as expected, revenue growth near 6.1% with margins improving toward 4.5%→ 4.2% annualized return.
- High Case: If technology licensing scales faster and project execution stays tight, revenue reaches about 6.7% and margins approach 4.7%→ 8.7% annualized return.
How Much Upside Does It Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
