Key Takeaways:
- Revenue Trajectory: LVMH Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne produced about €85 revenue in 2024 and about €83 LTM which frames a reset after a (2)% year trend.
- Margin Profile: LVMH posts a 23% operating margin in the model versus a 27% 1 year historical level which shows profitability pressure matters more than volume growth.
- Price Projection: It targets €699 by 2027 from €609 today using a 25x P/E which anchors returns to valuation staying elevated.
- Return Outlook: This implies a 15% total return over about 2 years which equates to about 7% annualized and sets a moderate base case outcome.
LVMH Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne (MC) is reshaping leadership with Pietro Beccari taking over the LVMH Fashion Group role on January 2026 which signals tighter control over execution across the fashion portfolio.
The company’s revenue fell to about €83 on an LTM basis from about €85 in 2024 which matters because demand normalization drives the debate on near term growth.
LVMH delivered about €20 in 2024 operating income and a 23% operating margin which shows pricing power still carries results even as revenue softens.
LVMH trades near €609 with a 25x P/E and the model implies €699 by 2027 which sets tension between 1% revenue growth assumptions and a valuation that still prices premium durability.
What the Model Says for MC Stock
We evaluated LVMH Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne by linking current operating income levels, brand scale, and capital discipline to modeled valuation outcomes.
Using 1.3% revenue growth, 22.3% operating margins, and a 24.9x exit P/E, the model projects LVMH at €698.74 per share.
This implies a 14.7% total return, or 7.3% annualized, over 1.9 years, ending at a €699 target price
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for MC stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 4.4%
LVMH Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne delivered 9.6% revenue growth over five years, with normalization after a -1.7% recent year decline, according to aggregated analyst estimates reflecting cycle moderation.
Current execution shows LVMH Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne stabilizing revenue near €85 billion as luxury demand cools in Asia while Europe and pricing offset volume pressure, based on consensus market estimates.
Forward growth depends on brand-led pricing, retail mix discipline, and gradual China recovery, while macro sensitivity and wholesale exposure cap acceleration, according to pooled market forecasts.
A 4.4% revenue growth assumption balances long-term brand strength against a slower luxury cycle and higher base effects.
2. Operating Margins: 15.8%
LVMH Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne historically delivered operating leverage with margins above 20% during peak demand years, supported by pricing power and scale efficiency, according to surveyed analyst expectations.
Recent margin pressure reflects softer volumes, higher retail costs, and normalization from prior peaks, with net income margins around 18% in the last year, based on street consensus estimates.
Margin sustainability depends on cost discipline, selective price increases, and brand mix skewing toward leather goods and jewelry with higher contribution, according to aggregated analyst estimates.
A normalized 15.8% margin assumption reflects conservative profitability through the cycle while preserving premium economics.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 24.9x
LVMH Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne has historically traded between roughly 23x and 25x earnings during stable growth periods, reflecting brand durability and cash generation, according to pooled market forecasts.
Current valuation embeds caution as earnings growth slows, even as balance sheet strength and capital returns remain intact, based on street consensus estimates.
Investor confidence hinges on maintaining margins and steady growth rather than rapid expansion, which limits multiple expansion but supports valuation stability, according to surveyed analyst expectations.
A 24.9x exit multiple reflects balanced sentiment toward quality, scale, and normalized growth without assuming re-rating.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
LVMH Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne’s outcomes depend on global luxury demand, brand pricing power, and cost discipline, creating a range of plausible paths through 2029.
- Low Case: If luxury demand stays uneven, brand momentum slows in Asia, and costs stay elevated, revenue grows around 4.0% and net margins hold near 14.8% → 3.9% annualized return
- Mid Case: With core brands performing steadily, pricing discipline intact, and costs normalized, revenue growth near 4.4% and net margins improving toward 15.8%→ 9.3% annualized return.
- High Case: If brand strength reaccelerates, Asia demand improves, and operating leverage strengthens, revenue reaches about 4.8%, and net margins approach 16.6% → 13.8% annualized return.
How Much Upside Does It Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
