Key Takeaways:
- Dividend Machine: Logista (LOG) continues to reward shareholders generously, proposing a total dividend of €2.09 per share for fiscal year 2025, representing a ~6.7% yield.
- Price Projection: Our model suggests the stock could climb steadily to €38 per share by September 2028.
- Expected Returns: This target implies a solid 7.8% annualized return, positioning the stock as a defensive income play rather than a high-growth rocket.
- Pharma Growth: While traditional tobacco volumes decline, the Pharma division is booming, with economic sales growing 10% driven by new agreements and warehouse expansions.
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Logista Integral (LOG) is the definition of a “sleep well at night” stock.
The company, which dominates proximity distribution in Southern Europe, recently reported resilient results for fiscal year 2025. Economic sales rose 3% to €1.8 billion, driven by strong performance in Italy and the Pharma segment.
However, the headline numbers were mixed. Net profit declined 9% to €281 million, largely due to higher financial costs and restructuring expenses.
Despite the earnings dip, the cash flow story remains intact. Management reaffirmed its commitment to shareholder returns, proposing a dividend of €2.09 per share, a 99% payout ratio.
With the stock trading at €31, is the 6.7% yield enough to justify buying, or will the decline in tobacco volumes eventually drag the stock down?
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What the Model Says for LOG Stock
We evaluated Logista’s potential through 2028, balancing the structural decline of its tobacco business against the rapid growth of its diversification efforts.
Our model points to steady, single-digit compounding. Using a forecast of 2.1% Revenue Growth (CAGR) and 17.2% Operating Margins, the model projects the stock will reach €38 by September 2028.
This implies a 7.8% annualized return over the next three years.
For investors seeking safety and income, this is an attractive proposition. The stock offers inflation-beating returns with significantly lower volatility than the broader tech or industrial sectors.
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for LOG stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 2.1%
Logista is managing a “pivot” in real-time.
The legacy tobacco business is shrinking. In France, tobacco volumes declined 9%, and in Italy, they fell 2%.
However, Logista is successfully offsetting this with diversification. Pharma economic sales grew 10%, helped by the integration of Belgium parcel services and a new pharmacy warehouse in Northern Italy. The company also recorded an 8% growth in economic sales in Italy, its best-performing region.
We forecast modest revenue growth of 2.1% CAGR through 2028, assuming the Pharma and Convenience segments continue to outweigh the tobacco drag.
2. Operating Margins: 17.2%
Despite inflationary pressures, the company maintained an Adjusted EBIT of €378 million. The company is also benefiting from “profit on inventory” due to tobacco price hikes, which contributed €45 million in 2025.
Management is actively optimizing costs, implementing cross-selling actions between its acquired businesses (like Transportes El Mosca) and its freight division.
We project operating margins to stabilize at 17.2%, reflecting the company’s ability to pass on costs and generate synergies from recent acquisitions.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 11.4x
Logista trades at a discount to pure-play logistics peers like DHL or ID Logistics due to its tobacco exposure.
The stock currently trades at roughly 12.4x earnings.
Our model assumes an exit multiple of 11.4x by 2028.
We chose a multiple that is slightly lower than where the stock trades today to ensure we have a built-in margin of safety. Given the long-term risks associated with tobacco consumption, it is prudent to assume the market will not aggressively re-rate the stock higher.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
The stock offers a narrow range of likely outcomes, fitting its profile as a low-volatility hold (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: If pharma growth stalls or tobacco declines accelerate, the return drops to 4.0% annual return (mostly just the dividend).
- Mid Case: If the diversification strategy continues to work as expected, we project a solid 9.0% annual return.
- High Case: If the market rewards the company for its successful pivot with a higher multiple, returns could reach 13.2% annual return.
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How Much Upside Does Logista Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
