Key Takeaways:
- Growth Acceleration: Amadeus IT Group (AMS) is back in growth mode, with Group revenue rising 8% and Adjusted EBIT climbing 9% in the first nine months of 2025.
- Price Projection: Our model projects the stock could surge to €82 per share by December 2027.
- Expected Returns: This target implies a robust 13.3% annualized return, making it an attractive pick for growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) investors.
- AI Catalyst: The company is aggressively deploying “Agentic AI” and generative AI solutions, partnering with Microsoft to revolutionize airline retailing and hotel management.
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
Amadeus IT Group (AMS) is proving that it is much more than just a legacy booking system.
The Spanish travel tech leader is successfully transitioning into a modern, cloud-based software provider. In the third quarter of 2025, booking growth accelerated to 4% (up from softer Q2 levels), driven by strong performance in Asia Pacific and Western Europe.
Management is capitalizing on this momentum by investing heavily in innovation. They deployed over €1 billion in R&D this year alone, focusing on their “Nevio” airline platform and new hospitality solutions for giants like Marriott and Accor.
With the stock trading at €64.52, investors have an opportunity to buy a high-quality compounder that is finally putting the pandemic recovery in the rearview mirror.
See analysts’ full growth forecasts and estimates for Amadeus stock (It’s free) >>>
What the Model Says for AMS Stock
We evaluated Amadeus’s potential through 2027, factoring in its dominant market position and the margin expansion potential from its shift to the cloud.
Our model signals a “Buy.” Using a forecast of 7.2% Revenue Growth (CAGR) and 28.7% Operating Margins, the model projects the stock could reach €82 by the end of 2027.
This implies a 13.3% annualized return over the next two years.
This return profile is compelling for a company with Amadeus’s competitive moat. It suggests the market has not fully priced in the earnings power of its new “Air IT” and “Hospitality” businesses.
Estimate a company’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for AMS stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 7.2%
The growth engine is diversified.
Air Distribution (bookings) remains solid, growing 8%, but the real excitement is in the new segments.
- Air IT Solutions: Revenue grew 7.9%, driven by passengers boarded (PB) growth of 4% and upselling of new solutions like Nevio.
- Hospitality & Other Solutions: Revenue grew 8.1%, with the segment expected to accelerate in the second half of the year as new customer implementations (like The Ascott Limited) go live.
We forecast revenue growth of 7.2% CAGR through 2027, assuming continued travel volume recovery and market share gains in hospitality software.
2. Operating Margins: 28.7%
Amadeus is seeing the benefits of its operating leverage. Adjusted EBIT grew 9%, outpacing revenue growth, despite high R&D investment.
The shift to the public cloud (ending the migration of mainframes) is expected to optimize costs further. Additionally, the high incremental margins of its software revenue mean that every new dollar of sales flows efficiently to the bottom line.
We project operating margins to expand to 28.7%, reflecting this scalability and the high value-add of its AI-driven products.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 18.9x
Amadeus currently trades at roughly 21.0x earnings, reflecting its status as a high-quality tech compounder.
Our model assumes an exit multiple of 18.9x by 2027.
We chose a multiple that is slightly lower than today’s valuation to ensure we have a built-in margin of safety. Even if the valuation compresses slightly as growth normalizes, the strong earnings expansion drives the stock price significantly higher.
Build your own Valuation Model to value any stock (It’s free!) >>>
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
The stock offers a strong risk/reward balance (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: If travel demand slumps or tech implementations are delayed, the stock could underperform with a 6.3% annual return.
- Mid Case: If the company hits its targets as expected, we project a solid 12.2% annual return.
- High Case: If AI adoption accelerates sales and margins expand faster, returns could reach an impressive 17.5% annual return.
See what analysts forecast for the next 5 years for AMS stock (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does Amadeus Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
