Key Stats for Nio Stock
- 1- Year Price Change for Nio stock: 13%
- $NIO Share Price as of Jan. 16: $4.71
- 52-Week High: $8.02
- $NIO Share Price Target: $6.78
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What Happened?
NIO (NIO) stock moved higher by 1.5% on Friday after Macquarie upgraded the Chinese electric vehicle maker to “Outperform” from “Neutral”. The firm raised its price target to $6.10 from $5.30, suggesting about 31% upside from current levels.
Analyst Eugene Hsiao pointed to stronger-than-expected demand for Nio’s ES8 SUV and growing adoption of the company’s Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) program as key reasons for the upgrade.
The firm increased its 2026 delivery forecast by 7% to 451,000 vehicles, driven by momentum from the new ES8 and Firefly models.
What sets NIO stock apart is its battery leasing program.
- More than 80% of customers choose to lease their battery rather than buy it outright.
- This matters because it shields Nio from rising lithium costs that could squeeze margins at traditional EV makers.
Hsiao wrote in his research note.
“Rising use of BaaS (>80%) could better insulate the company from industry headwinds as potential higher battery costs are held off balance sheet,”
Nio’s BaaS program lets customers buy the vehicle without the battery, then pay a monthly fee to lease it. Owners can upgrade to larger battery packs for road trips and downgrade to standard 75kWh packs for everyday driving.
- Nio delivered strong results in Q4, hitting the high end of its 125,000 unit guidance.
- For the full year, Nio delivered 326,028 vehicles across its three brands—up 47% year-over-year.
- This included 178,806 premium Nio vehicles, 107,808 mass-market Onvo units, and 39,414 Firefly vehicles.
CEO William Li expressed confidence about the company’s trajectory during the recent earnings call, stating:
“For full year 2026, our business target is to achieve profit for the full year on a non-GAAP basis. We do see confidence in achieving this profitability target for next year.”
Li also noted that Nio expects vehicle gross margins to reach around 20% next year, up from 14.7% in Q3 2025, driven by a better product mix and continued supplier cost optimization.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About NIO Stock
The upgrade comes at an interesting time for Chinese EV makers. While Macquarie raised its outlook on NIO stock, it simultaneously lowered price targets for rivals Li Auto and XPeng, citing margin pressure and uncertain volume catalysts.
Macquarie expects Nio to achieve roughly 40% volume growth in 2026 despite a broadly weak Chinese EV market. The firm believes Nio’s battery swap infrastructure and unique BaaS offering provide a competitive edge that’s becoming more valuable.
Battery prices fell sharply in China last year—down 13% to $84 per kilowatt-hour according to BloombergNEF.
For most EV makers, this helps margins in the short term. But Nio’s battery leasing model means the company is less exposed to swings in battery costs, creating more predictable economics.
The company plans to launch three new large SUV models in 2026, targeting the premium segment where battery electric vehicles are gaining share.
Nio noted that BEV penetration in the premium large SUV segment jumped from 12% to 18% between 2024 and Q3 2025, creating significant growth opportunities.
With Nio targeting profitability in 2026 and Macquarie projecting substantial upside, NIO stock could be worth watching for investors interested in the Chinese EV space.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
