Key Stats for ChevronStock
- Past-Week Performance: +3%
- 52-week Range: $132 to $169
- Valuation Model Target Price: $188
- Implied Upside: 12.5% over 2.0 years
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What Happened?
Chevron Corporation stock (CVX) rose about 3% over the past week, finishing near $166 per share and trading toward the upper end of its recent range.
The advance followed Chevron’s Final Investment Decision (FID) to expand the Leviathan offshore natural gas field, a concrete project that will add new wells and increase gas supply to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.
The FID removed uncertainty around the timing and scale of the project, improving visibility into future gas production and supporting expectations for incremental cash flow from Chevron’s Eastern Mediterranean assets.
Shares were further supported by reports that Chevron is expected to receive an expanded U.S. license to operate in Venezuela, which would allow higher oil production and exports if finalized.
As the only U.S. major currently operating in Venezuela under a special authorization, Chevron stands to directly benefit from any easing of restrictions, making the news material to its medium-term supply outlook.
While oil prices softened later in the week and an insider sale added some offsetting pressure, the stock moved higher overall as investors focused on these two supply-driven developments, which help explain why Chevron shares rose despite a mixed macro and geopolitical backdrop.
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Is Chevron Undervalued Right Now?
Chevron is trading at a valuation that reflects steady cash generation and disciplined capital returns, but assumes limited revenue growth and a relatively stable oil price environment.
Under valuation model assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): -1.4%
- Operating Margins: 12.9%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 18.8x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $178, implying 6.9% total upside from the current share price over the next 2.0 years, or about 3.4% annually.
Over the next 12 months, results will be shaped by how much additional production Chevron can bring online in Venezuela under the expanded license and how efficiently those barrels convert into free cash flow rather than higher capital spending.
Execution in the Permian Basin remains another important driver, as Chevron continues prioritizing shorter-cycle assets with faster payback periods that support consistent cash generation.
At the same time, downstream refining and LNG operations help stabilize earnings and cash flow, supporting dividends and buybacks even if oil prices remain range-bound.
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