Key Takeaways:
- Record Efficiency: Bankinter (BKT) is operating at peak performance with a sector-leading cost-to-income ratio of 36%, driving record net income of €812 million (+11% YoY).
- Price Projection: Our model projects the stock could climb to €18 per share by December 2027.
- Expected Returns: This target implies a solid 13.5% annualized return, making it a compelling “Buy” for investors seeking quality and steady growth.
- Growth Engines: The bank is seeing explosive growth in new markets, with customer volumes in Ireland jumping 20% and Wealth Management assets soaring 19%.
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
Bankinter (BKT) is arguably the most efficient bank in Spain right now.
While competitors struggle with bloated cost structures, Bankinter boasts a cost-to-income ratio of just 36%, the best in the sector, allowing it to convert revenue into profit at an exceptional rate.
This efficiency is fueling growth across the board. In the first nine months of 2025, net interest income grew 5.5%, and even more impressively, fee and commission income rose 10.6%. This proves Bankinter is successfully diversifying away from reliance on just high interest rates.
With the stock trading around €14, the market seems to be pricing it as a slow-growth utility. But with double-digit volume growth in key international markets, is that fair?
See analysts’ full growth forecasts and estimates for Bankinter stock (It’s free) >>>
What the Model Says for BKT Stock
We evaluated Bankinter’s potential through 2027, factoring in its superior efficiency and successful international expansion.
Our model points to steady, reliable upside. Using a forecast of 5.0% Revenue Growth (CAGR) and 64.2% Operating Margins, the model projects the stock could reach €18 by the end of 2027.
This implies a 13.5% annualized return over the next two years.
This return profile sits right in the “sweet spot”, offering double-digit returns driven by earnings quality rather than speculative hype.
Estimate a company’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for BKT stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 5.0%
Growth is broad-based across all regions.
Bankinter is firing on all cylinders. Customer volumes are up 7% in Spain, 12% in Portugal, and a massive 20% in Ireland.
The bank is also winning in high-value segments. Assets under management in Wealth Management grew 19%, generating significantly higher fee income. Management noted they have already surpassed their historical range for net new money, bringing in €8 billion to €10 billion annually.
We forecast revenue growth of 5.0% CAGR through 2027, assuming the bank continues to take market share in wealth management and international markets.
2. Operating Margins: 64.2%
Bankinter’s efficiency ratio of 36% is industry-leading.
Management is successfully managing deposit costs, with the cost of deposits dropping 14 basis points quarter-over-quarter as rates fall. At the same time, credit quality remains pristine, with an NPL ratio of just 2.05%, well below the sector average.
We project operating margins to remain elite at 64.2%, supported by strict cost control and a shift toward higher-margin fee businesses.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 12.3x
Bankinter currently trades at around 10.3x earnings, which is a discount relative to its historical quality.
Our model assumes an exit multiple of 12.3x by 2027.
We chose a multiple that allows for a slight re-rating. As investors recognize the durability of Bankinter’s earnings, driven by fees and efficiency rather than just rate hikes, they should be willing to pay a bit more for this “best-in-class” operator compared to riskier peers.
Build your own Valuation Model to value any stock (It’s free!) >>>
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
The downside looks manageable, while the upside scenarios are attractive (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: If a recession hits and loan growth stalls, returns could drop to -11.2% annual return (reflecting a sharp multiple contraction).
- Mid Case: If the current steady trajectory continues, we project a positive 7.4% annual return.
- High Case: If the Ireland expansion accelerates and margins hold up better than expected, returns could jump to 24.3% annual return.
See what analysts think about BKT stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does Bankinter Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
