Key Stats for AppLovin Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -12%
- 52-Week Range: $201 to $746
- Valuation Model Target Price: $764
- Implied Upside: 34.4% over 2.0 years
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What Happened?
AppLovin stock (APP) fell about 12% over the past week, pulling back from recent highs and finishing near $569, after a sharp selloff late in the week erased earlier gains.
The decline came even as analyst sentiment around AppLovin remained broadly positive.
Over recent months, multiple research firms have raised price targets or reiterated Buy ratings, including UBS, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, and Scotiabank, with targets ranging from the low $700s to as high as $860. That optimism helped push the stock to elevated levels heading into the week.
As shares traded well above some analysts’ consensus expectations, selling pressure picked up as investors locked in profits following the stock’s strong run.
The pullback accelerated on January 16, when APP fell more than 6% in a single session, suggesting active de-risking rather than a gradual drift lower.
Overall, the move appears to reflect a valuation and positioning reset, as the stock cooled off from stretched levels despite continued support from the sell side, rather than a reaction to any new negative development specific to AppLovin’s business.
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Is AppLovin Fairly Valued Right Now?
Under valuation model assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 28.4%
- Operating Margins: 74.7%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 45.0x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $764, implying 34.4% total upside from the current share price over the next 2.0 years, or about 16.3% annualized.
Over the next year, results will largely depend on whether AppLovin’s advertising platform continues to capture performance-focused ad budgets, since consistent return on ad spend is what supports both revenue growth and pricing power.
Continued improvements in ad targeting, optimization, and conversion efficiency also matter, because stronger advertiser outcomes tend to drive incremental spending while allowing margins to remain elevated without a proportional increase in operating costs.
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