Key Stats for Tesla Stock
- Current Price: $367.51
- TIKR Model Target Price (Mid): $2,022.07
- Street Target (Mean): $419.03
- Potential Total Return (Mid): +460.8%
- Annualized IRR: 43.8% / year
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What Happened?
Tesla (TSLA) stock has become a referendum on one question: Is this a car company or something else entirely?
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, roughly 7,600 units below Wall Street’s consensus of 365,645, sending the stock down more than 5% on April 2, its steepest single-session drop of the year. The stock has now pulled back 27.48% from its 52-week high of $498.83. Bears are pointing at a car business in structural decline. Bulls are pointing at the factory in Austin.
The delivery miss did not arrive in isolation.
Tesla ended Model S and X production earlier this year to convert those lines for Optimus robot manufacturing, compressing near-term volume deliberately.
CFO Vaibhav Taneja framed the strategy plainly on Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call on January 28: “We’re starting not the next chapter, but a new book on the progression of this company. 2026 would be when all of this began.”
Q1 2026 energy storage deployments came in at 8.8 gigawatt hours (GWh), well below the record 14.2 GWh Tesla deployed in Q4 2025.
Tesla’s energy segment, which grew from $10,086 million in 2024 to $12,771 million in 2025 per TIKR segment data, is the company’s most credible second revenue leg. A sequential pullback there adds pressure heading into full Q1 earnings on April 22.
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Is Tesla Undervalued Today?
At $367.51, Tesla trades at 174.57x forward earnings and 87.16x forward EBITDA per TIKR. Those multiples price in a specific future arriving on schedule, and the delivery miss is a reminder that Tesla’s schedule has historically been optimistic.
The near-term pressure is real.
Automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits recovered to 17.9% in Q4 2025, according to Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings report, but the company’s own guidance calls for Capex exceeding $20 billion in 2026 across six simultaneous factory projects. TIKR estimates show free cash flow turning to ($6,033.50) million in 2026 before recovering.
Meanwhile, BYD and other Chinese manufacturers have taken meaningful global EV share, and that competitive pressure is structural rather than cyclical.
BYD trades at 0.92x NTM revenue, GM at 0.92x, Ford at 1.05x. Tesla trades at 12.86x. That is not a gap that closes on automotive earnings alone. It is a market bet on Cybercab, Optimus, and FSD (Full Self-Driving, Tesla’s autonomous driving software), generating margins no traditional automaker will produce.
That bet now has a production date.
On the Q4 2025 earnings call, Musk confirmed: “The CyberCab… does not have a steering wheel or pedals… this car either drives itself or it does not drive. We expect to start production in April.”
Lars Moravy, Tesla’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, added on the same call that Tesla believes the Cybercab segment will grow at millions of units per year and that long-term, Cybercab would make several times more vehicles per year than all of Tesla’s current car lines combined.
These are management projections, not confirmed outcomes. Musk himself acknowledged the production ramp follows an S-curve, starting slowly before scaling.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $367.51
- TIKR Model Target Price (Mid): $2,022.07
- Potential Total Return: +460.8%
- Annualized IRR: 43.8% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model uses a 23.9% revenue CAGR, with Cybercab volume ramp and Megapack energy storage as the two primary growth drivers. It targets a net income margin of 22.5% by 2030, up from 6.2% in full-year 2025, as the new factory base achieves operating leverage. The path there runs through a capital trough: TIKR estimates free cash flow at ($6,033.50) million in 2026, recovering to $3,709 million in 2027 and scaling toward $27,149 million by 2030.
The upside case requires Cybercab to scale on schedule and FSD to build a durable, high-margin software revenue layer. The downside case involves continued delivery pressure, margin erosion from Chinese EV competition, and regulatory delays on unsupervised autonomous operation, compressing Tesla’s valuation multiple. At an LTM P/E of 335.31x per TIKR, the stock leaves almost no room for sustained execution misses.
Conclusion: The number to watch at the April 22 earnings report is automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits. It recovered to 17.9% in Q4 2025 per Tesla’s earnings report. If it holds above 17% despite the delivery miss and rising Capex, the cost structure is intact. If it falls below 15%, the gap between Tesla’s current valuation and its current business becomes very difficult to defend.
Tesla has structured its entire 2026 investment cycle around the idea that the car business is the funding mechanism for something far larger. April 22 will tell us if that bet is on track.
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Should You Invest in Tesla?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Tesla, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Tesla alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
