Key Stats for Monday Stock
- 52-Week Range: $66.2 to $317
- Current Price: $67.7
- Street Mean Target: $128
- Street High Target: $310
- Valuation Model Target: $130
What Happened?
monday.com (MNDY), a work management and AI workflow platform serving over 250,000 businesses from SMBs to global enterprises, has crashed 79% from its 52-week high of $316.98 to $67.70 after a guidance reset that forced investors to reprice the entire growth story.
On February 9, management issued 2026 revenue guidance of $1.452 billion to $1.462 billion, representing 18% to 19% growth — a figure that landed roughly $40 million below the $1.5 billion threshold management had publicly called “confident” just months earlier at its September 2025 Investor Day.
The shortfall traced directly to deterioration in monday.com’s no-touch SMB channel, where Google search algorithm changes reduced organic traffic, increased customer acquisition costs, and lowered returns on performance marketing to below historical levels, a headwind management confirmed it expects to persist throughout 2026.
Co-CEO Roy Mann stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “the cost to acquire and expand self-serve customers have increased over the past year, and the returns on those investments have been below historical levels,” while simultaneously noting that the company’s sales-led enterprise motion “have continued to accelerate” throughout the year.
The guidance reset came alongside management withdrawing its previously issued 2027 revenue targets entirely, authorizing an $870 million share repurchase program, and reporting that customers with over $500,000 in ARR — the company’s largest enterprise cohort — grew 74% year-over-year, a record that underscores how bifurcated the business has become between a struggling SMB base and a surging enterprise tier.
Wall Street’s Take on MNDY Stock
The earnings reset does not change the enterprise trajectory — it exposes how much of monday.com’s prior valuation was built on SMB growth assumptions that Google’s algorithm changes have now structurally impaired, and the bull case now rests entirely on whether the upmarket motion can compound fast enough to fill that hole.
Consensus estimates call for MNDY revenue of $1.46 billion in 2026, rising to $2.38 billion by 2030, while normalized EPS recovers from $4.40 in 2025 to an estimated $4.05 in 2026 before reaccelerating to $7.94 by 2030 — both trajectories anchored by management’s confirmed 110% net dollar retention rate and the record 74% growth in the $500,000-plus ARR customer cohort reported at Q4.
Twenty-one analysts carry buy or outperform ratings on MNDY against just five holds and zero sells, with a mean price target of $127.76 implying 88.7% upside from current levels and a street high of $310 — yet the stock is trading within $1.52 of its 52-week low, a dislocation that reflects the market pricing in permanent SMB impairment rather than a temporary channel disruption.
The $127.76 mean and $310 street high represent genuinely different theses: the mean embeds a recovery in SMB performance marketing in 2027 and continued enterprise compounding, while the $310 bull case requires monday Vibe — which became the fastest product in company history to surpass $1 million ARR — to emerge as a standalone growth driver at scale.
Priced at approximately 1.4x 2026 estimated revenue against 89% gross margins and 18% guided growth, MNDY stock is deeply undervalued relative to its own history and to SaaS peers with inferior unit economics, though that discount reflects a genuine structural question: whether Google’s algorithm changes represent a one-time reset or a permanent reduction in the addressable SMB opportunity.
CFO Eliran Glazer’s statement that the company “will no longer be discussing our previously provided 2027 targets” until “there is greater visibility” crystallizes the risk — management itself cannot see far enough ahead to commit to a multi-year number, which is a rare admission for a company that had been consistently beating its own guidance for years.
If the SMB no-touch channel continues to deteriorate beyond current assumptions and enterprise expansion cannot sustain 110% net dollar retention simultaneously, the 2026 free cash flow guide of $275 million to $290 million breaks and the thesis collapses entirely.
Q1 2026 earnings, with revenue guided to $338 million to $340 million, will be the first concrete read on whether the SMB channel has stabilized or is still declining, with net dollar retention holding at 110% the single most important number to watch.
monday.com Income Statement
monday.com grew total revenues 26.7% to $1.23 billion in FY2025, extending a four-year streak of compounding top-line growth that began at $310 million in 2021 — but the income statement reveals the cost of that growth has been rising faster than the revenue it generates.
Gross profit reached $1.10 billion in FY2025 at an 89.2% gross margin, a figure that has remained essentially flat since 2023 as cost of goods sold scaled proportionally with revenue, suggesting the platform’s unit economics are durable but not expanding in the way high-multiple SaaS investors have historically rewarded.
SG&A expenses consumed $780 million in FY2025 — a figure that has grown from $320 million in 2021 and now represents 63% of revenue — and combined with $320 million in R&D spending, left GAAP operating income at essentially breakeven despite $1.23 billion in revenue, a structural gap between reported profitability and the non-GAAP metrics management uses to guide investors.
The tension the income statement reveals is straightforward: monday.com has built a high-margin revenue base but has not yet built an efficient cost structure around it, and the 2026 guidance calling for operating margin compression to 11% to 12% on a non-GAAP basis — below the 14% posted in 2025 — signals that the AI and enterprise investment cycle will keep GAAP profitability elusive well into 2027.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model assigns MNDY a mid-case target of $129.92 by December 2030, implying a 91.9% total return at a 14.7% annualized IRR, built on a revenue CAGR assumption of 14.8% that management’s own $1.46 billion 2026 guide and confirmed 110% net dollar retention from 250,000 customers directly support, even without any recovery in the SMB channel.
At $67.70, the math on MNDY is hard to ignore — the stock is priced for permanent impairment at a business with 89% gross margins, 21 analyst buy ratings, and an enterprise cohort growing at 74%, making MNDY undervalued against any scenario where SMB doesn’t get materially worse.
The stock is trading within $1.52 of its 52-week low while the enterprise half of the business posts record metrics, which means the market is either right that the SMB damage is structural and contagious — or deeply wrong, and this is one of the more asymmetric setups in software right now.
The Opportunity
The market is pricing MNDY as if the entire business is broken. It isn’t. The SMB channel is broken — the enterprise business is compounding at a rate most software companies would trade their entire go-to-market motion for.
Customers with over $500,000 in ARR grew 74% in FY2025, gross retention in the $50,000-plus cohort hit a record 91% in Q4, and the $870 million buyback authorization lets management retire stock at roughly 1.4x forward revenue while it waits for the narrative to catch up to the numbers.
Meanwhile, monday AI processed over 77 million actions in Q4 alone and monday Vibe surpassed $1 million ARR faster than any product in company history — a consumption-driven monetization layer that consensus estimates have not yet priced in.
If enterprise holds and even one AI product scales, the 18% revenue guide is a floor, not a ceiling.
The Risk
The credibility damage is real and will not heal quickly. Management guided $1.5 billion with confidence, missed by $40 million, withdrew its 2027 targets entirely, and now faces a securities class action alleging it misled investors about sales cycle trends while those trends were already deteriorating.
That sequence typically requires four to six quarters of clean execution before institutional money returns in size — and clean execution is harder when free cash flow is guided to decline year-over-year, gross margins are compressing toward the mid-to-high 80s, and the Israeli shekel is applying a 100 to 200 basis point headwind to every margin line simultaneously.
The deeper question the class action complaint raises is whether lengthening sales cycles were isolated to SMB or were already moving up-market when management was still telling investors the $1.5 billion target was achievable.
Q1 earnings answer that question. If net dollar retention slips below 110%, the investment case changes entirely.
Should You Invest in Monday.com Ltd.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up MNDY stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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