Nike Stock Hits an 11-Year Low After Earnings. Could 2026 Finally Be the Bottom?

Key Stats for Nike Stock

• Current Price: $44.19
• Target Price (Mid): $85.02
• Street Target: $66.65
• Potential Total Return: +92.4%
• Annualized IRR: 17.00% / year

Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>

What Happened?

Nike (NKE) hit its lowest price since 2014 this week, and it was not because of a bad quarter. Nike beat estimates. Earnings per share came in at $0.35 against a consensus of $0.29, and revenue of $11.28 billion edged past the $11.23 billion forecast. The stock briefly rose 3% in after-hours trading before management’s forward guidance erased the gains and then some.

Q4 revenue was guided to decline 2% to 4% year over year. 

More damaging, management projected Greater China revenue would fall approximately 20% in the quarter. NKE fell 15.51% the next session. 

Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and cut its price target to $52 from $76, stating it was incrementally cautious about Nike’s recovery timeline with the Chinese market under particular pressure. JPMorgan downgraded from Overweight to Neutral and cut its target from $86 to $52, flagging the extended turnaround and trimming fiscal 2027 and 2028 estimates below consensus.

President and CEO Elliott Hill addressed the situation in Nike’s investor relations materials: “While our comeback is taking longer than I would like, I am confident that our progress in the areas we prioritize points to where we are ultimately heading across our portfolio.”

The stock now trades 44.23% below its recent peak, with a 52-week range of $43.17 to $80.17.

See historical and forward estimates for Nike stock (It’s free!) >>>

Is Nike Undervalued Today?

At $44.19, Nike trades at 27.05 times next-twelve-months (NTM) earnings, 18.65 times NTM EV/EBITDA, and 1.42 times NTM sales. Even after a 44% collapse from its peak, those multiples carry a significant premium to peers. 

On TIKR’s Competitors page, lululemon athletica trades at 7.04 times NTM EV/EBITDA and 12.64 times NTM P/E, while On Holding AG trades at 12.32 times NTM EV/EBITDA and 20.58 times NTM P/E. The median NTM EV/EBITDA across Nike’s 29 comparable peers sits at 9.05 times. Nike trades at more than double that figure.

That premium is only justified if the recovery lands. 

The most credible evidence is in North America, where Q3 wholesale revenue grew 11%, and the business achieved positive growth across all channels in February for the first time in two years. 

CFO Matt Friend confirmed on the call that the underlying North America profitability has improved for three consecutive quarters. 

Nike Running grew over 20% for the quarter, and management is using it as the template for spreading the Sport Offense to football, training, and basketball. 

The Nike Mind platform, a pre- and post-competition focus system with over 150 patents filed globally, sold out across all geographies at launch and generated more than 2 million notify-me signups on nike.com, prompting Nike to double production for the next two seasons.

The harder reality sits outside North America. 

Greater China revenue declined 10% in Q3 and is guided to fall approximately 20% in Q4 as Nike accelerates inventory cleanup. 

Hill was direct: “We have become clearer on the structural challenges in China and the channel dynamics in the marketplace.” 

EMEA revenue fell 7% in Q3, with NIKE stores down 20%, as promotional activity intensified and Middle East disruption weighed on traffic. The Sportswear segment declined by low double digits globally and remains a drag on every geography. 

Hill noted that Nike deliberately removed over $4 billion of revenue from peak Classics levels, with that inventory pull creating roughly 5 percentage points of headwind to Q3’s reported results.

On margins, gross margin fell 130 basis points to 40.2%, with tariffs accounting for 300 basis points of pressure in North America alone. A $230 million severance charge in supply chain and technology added near-term pressure.

See how Nike performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>

TIKR Advanced Model Analysis

• Current Price: $44.19
• Target Price (Mid): $85.02
• Potential Total Return: +92.4%
• Annualized IRR: 17.00% / year

See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Nike stock (It’s free!) >>>

The TIKR mid-case model targets $85.02 by May 31, 2030, using a 4.5% revenue CAGR and net income margin recovering to 7.0%. The primary revenue drivers are North America wholesale reacceleration and eventual Greater China stabilization as inventory is cleaned and sell-in is rebuilt to match full-price demand. The margin driver is the unwinding of Win Now restructuring costs and tariff headwinds as Nike shifts toward a more variable cost structure.

The upside scenario: North America momentum sustains, the Sport Offense spreads to football and basketball over the next few quarters, and the Investor Day this fall at the Philip H. Knight Campus in Beaverton gives institutional investors the long-term framework they have been waiting for. The downside: Greater China deteriorates beyond management’s fiscal 2027 timeline, tariffs prove stickier than expected, and the premium multiple relative to peers compresses further before any recovery arrives.

Conclusion: At the Q4 earnings report on June 25, 2026, watch Greater China revenue against the guided approximately 20% decline. A shallower drop signals the marketplace cleanup is tracking ahead of schedule and is the most direct catalyst for a re-rating.

Nike is a structurally durable brand in the middle of a painful but deliberate reset, now trading at its lowest price since 2014. The TIKR mid-case model sees 92.4% upside to May 2030. The question is whether the recovery arrives on the timeline management has committed to.

See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.

Should You Invest in Nike?

The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.

Pull up Nike, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.

You can build a free watchlist to track Nike alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.

Analyze Nike on TIKR Free →

Looking for New Opportunities?

• See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
• Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
• The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.

Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!