Key Takeaways
- Starbucks will close about 250 North America coffeehouses and now expects about 440 net new openings in fiscal 2026, down from the 600 to 650 it maintained in July when it raised its broader fiscal 2026 outlook.
- TIKR data shows EBIT margin fell to 9.90% in fiscal 2025 from 14.18% in fiscal 2024, against a 16.18% peak in fiscal 2021.
- Management guides fiscal 2026 margin above 11%, still short of the 13.78% to 15.36% range of fiscal 2022 through 2024.
Guidance puts the fiscal 2026 margin above 11%, while fiscal 2022 through 2024 ran between 13.78% and 15.36%. See the full margin history. Track SBUX margins on TIKR for free →
Starbucks Stock Cuts Its Store Count Two Months After Raising Guidance
On the Q3 2026 earnings call, CEO Brian Niccol told investors Starbucks was raising its outlook, with 600 to 650 net new coffeehouses still on the plan. On September 24, a filing said about 250 North America locations would close, with about $300 million in restructuring charges, $200 million of it cash.
The closures came despite strong reported comps. U.S. comps grew 7.9% in the third quarter, yet CFO Cathy Smith said about half or slightly less than half of that growth came from closures, sales transfer and delivery growth. Pruning already feeds the comp, so margin is the better scorecard.
TIKR’s EBIT margin shows the ground to recover. It ran from 14.77% in fiscal 2019 to 16.18% in fiscal 2021, held between 13.78% and 15.36% through fiscal 2024, then dropped to 9.90% in fiscal 2025.
Third-quarter non-GAAP consolidated operating margin of 14.4% looks like a full recovery, but it had help. Tariff refunds largely offset tariffs paid in the first three quarters, which is why Smith pointed to the 32.3% year-to-date product and distribution cost rate rather than the quarter’s 30.3%. China adds a structural lift as well. Its $53 million of Q3 revenue carried an operating margin above 100% under the new joint venture.
A Margin Above 11% Would Repair Starbucks, Not Restore It
Guidance of above 11% clears fiscal 2025’s 9.90%. On the chart, though, it sits below every year except fiscal 2020 and 2025. Management’s figure is company-defined, while TIKR’s line may carry restructuring charges, so the comparison is directional.
The closures read as the price of getting there. Starbucks is paying cash now to exit stores that fall short of the performance it expects of the brand.
The unresolved risk is quality. Refunds do not repeat, and some comp growth is sales moving between stores.
The next test is the fourth quarter call, tentatively set for October 29. A margin that holds near the third quarter level without refund help would show the savings are sticking. A fiscal 2027 outlook showing continued margin expansion toward pre-2025 levels would show the footprint reset is restoring profitability, not just repairing it.
So what is Starbucks stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
