Key Takeaways
- Merck stock is up 61% over the past year to $144 at the Oct 2 close, with the sharpest leg coming Aug 19 on the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma win.
- Scotiabank’s Sept 29 target hike to $180 from $155 sits 25% above the close.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values Merck at $166 by Dec 2030, implying 15% total return, or 3% annualized, from the $144 close, far below the 61% the stock just delivered.
Merck Stock Climbed 61% in a Year as Pipeline Readouts Came Early
Merck (MRK) stock has gained 61% over the past year, closing at $144 on October 2 after peaking above $155 in late August. The sharpest leg higher came on August 19, when Merck and Moderna reported that intismeran autogene plus Keytruda met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma trial.
The August 4 Q2 earnings call had already set the tone. Asked about the biggest risk to the $70 billion pipeline opportunity, CEO Rob Davis pointed to the pace of readouts: “So as we sit here today, my confidence is higher than it was in January because we are seeing meaningful derisking.” Four results since May back him up: sac-TMT’s survival win in endometrial cancer on May 18, tulisokibart’s Phase 3 pass in ulcerative colitis on June 22, the melanoma data, and tulisokibart’s September 30 hit in hidradenitis suppurativa, where 72% of patients on the top dose reached a 50% lesion reduction versus 35% on placebo.
The run has not been clean. Merck withdrew its ifinatamab deruxtecan filing for small cell lung cancer on September 25 after FDA discussions showed the Phase 2 data did not satisfy requirements for accelerated approval, and Merck stock has slipped from its August high. Growth is also cooling at the core: Keytruda family sales rose 5% to $8.4 billion in Q2, or 4% excluding foreign exchange, and CFO Caroline Litchfield told investors on September 9 that 2027 brings only modest top-line growth as new launches are partly offset by generic competition.
Still, Scotiabank raised its target to $180 from $155 on September 29, a level 25% above Friday’s close. Merck stock rose 61% as the pipeline built to support growth beyond Keytruda delivered several positive readouts, including some earlier than management had expected.
TIKR Values Merck Stock at $166, a 15% Gap After a 61% Run
TIKR’s mid-case model values Merck at $166 by December 2030, implying 15% total return from the current price of $144, or 3% annualized over 4.2 years.
Scotiabank’s $180 target sits 8-9% above that figure, which makes the model the more cautious voice on Merck stock.
A 3% annualized return leaves limited upside under TIKR’s mid-case assumptions after the stock’s 61% run. The path to $166 also comes as Merck expects only modest top-line growth in 2027, with new launches partly offset by generic competition and slowing Keytruda growth.
So what is Merck stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
