Key Takeaways
- DraftKings stock has fallen 48% since early January to $18.59 on Oct 2, starting with a 14% drop on Feb 13 after the company guided 2026 revenue below Street expectations.
- Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell to $114.6M from $300.64M YoY on Aug 6, and revenue of $1.44B missed the $1.516B estimate.
- Analysts rate the stock 25 buys, 5 outperforms, 6 holds and 1 underperform, with a $35 mean target 87% above the close.
- TIKR’s model values DraftKings stock at $203, a 993% total return by Dec 2030.
The Street’s mean target sits 87% above the close while the stock is down 48%. See who is still buying: Check DKNG analyst ratings on TIKR for free →
Why DraftKings Stock Fell 48% as a Weak Outlook Met a Prediction-Market Threat
DraftKings (DKNG) stock has fallen 48% since early January and closed at $19 on October 2. The first big break came on February 13, when DraftKings stock dropped 14% after the company guided 2026 revenue to $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion, a range that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
That reset drove a 37% first-quarter slide, from $34 to $22, and two more pressures followed:
- BofA Global Research warned on July 21 that 9.5% of DraftKings users also used Kalshi in June, up from 4% in January.
- Q2 results on August 6 cut adjusted EBITDA to $114.6 million from $300.64 million a year earlier, and revenue of $1.44 billion missed the $1.516 billion estimate.
CEO Jason Robins addressed the overhang at the Wells Fargo Consumer Conference on September 22: “I would also guess that if prediction markets got shut down by the Supreme Court tomorrow, our share price would pop.” His own read frames the slide: the stock went from $25 on June 30 to $19 on September 30, and BTIG cut its target to $25 from $30 on October 1.
A guidance reset drove the February selloff, while prediction-market competition has remained an investor overhang.
The Street’s $35 Mean Target Sits 87% Above DraftKings Stock
Analysts rate DraftKings stock 25 buys, 5 outperforms, 6 holds and 1 underperform, against 21 buys, 6 outperforms, 8 holds and 1 underperform on December 31. The mean target fell from $44 on December 31 to $35 and has held there since June 30, while the close slid from $25 to $19, lifting the upside from 38% to 87%. Thirty-six analysts publish price targets, up from 33 a year ago, and the lowest target of $20 still sits above the close.
TIKR’s mid-case model values DraftKings stock at $203, implying about a 992% total return by December 2030.
TIKR’s mid-case model values DraftKings at $203 by December 2030, implying a 993% total return from the current price of $19, or 76% annualized over 4.2 years.
The $203 target is nearly six times the Street’s $35 mean target and more than double the highest published target of $76.
The gap between $19 and $203 exists because the stock prices in the February guidance reset and the prediction-market threat, while the model values the earnings power behind a business that 25 analysts rate a buy.
TIKR’s mid-case model puts DraftKings at $203, a 993% return from $19. Test the assumptions behind it: Build your own DKNG valuation on TIKR for free →
So what is DraftKings stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what DKNG stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
