Key Takeaways
- SoFi stock has fallen 43% since early January, from a $29 high to $16, while Q2 revenue grew 40% YoY.
- SoFi lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $4.75B-$4.85B on July 29 but held adjusted EPS at $0.60, and shares dropped 9% in early trading as investors wanted profit to match growth.
- TIKR’s model implies 129% total return to $36 by 12/31/30, or 22% annualized.
Why SoFi Stock Is Down 43% While Revenue Grows 40%
SoFi stock (SOFI) has dropped 43% since early January, sliding from a $29 high to $16 at the October 2 close, even as second-quarter revenue rose 40% year over year.
Profit explains the gap. On July 29, SoFi raised 2026 revenue guidance to $4.75 billion-$4.85 billion yet held adjusted EPS at $0.60. A 22% tax rate, 700 basis points above the original plan, took $0.05 off that figure, and management now expects one to two rate hikes instead of two cuts. Insiders sold into the slide: CTO Jeremy Rishel sold 18,624 shares at $17.50 on September 21, as SoFi stock drifted down from $19 in late August.
CFO Chris Lapointe defended the flat profit outlook on the Q2 earnings call: “There are just too many large attractive growth areas for us to invest versus adding even more profitability.” Reinvestment capped the profit upside, and investors repriced the multiple instead: over the past year, EPS grew 149.6% while P/E contracted 34.9%.
SoFi stock now trades at 22 times next-twelve-month normalized earnings, less than half its 51x average since late 2023.
Revenue kept compounding at 40% while profit guidance stood still, and SoFi stock has paid for that gap with 43% of its value.
TIKR Values SoFi Stock at $36, a 129% Return by 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values SoFi at $36 by December 2030, implying a 129% total return from the current price of $16, or 22% annualized.
That annual pace sits far above what a typical large-cap stock earns, so the model treats SoFi stock at $16 as a deep discount. The price already carries the reinvestment drag and the higher tax rate, while the target carries what that spending is built to earn. The next test arrives October 27, when management reports Q3 results.
So what is SoFi Technologies stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what SOFI stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Value SoFi Technologies for free→
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
