Key Stats for AppLovin Stock
- Current Price: $281.31
- Target Price (Mid): ~$566
- Street Target: ~$497
- Potential Total Return: ~101%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
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What Happened?
AppLovin (APP) is fighting Unity Software (U) over data from its own ad auctions, and the stock now trades below a far smaller ad-tech rival. At its October 1, 2026, close of $281.31, AppLovin traded at 12.29x NTM EV/EBITDA, under Magnite (MGNI) at 12.57x. That is despite $1.61 billion of Q2 adjusted EBITDA on $1.92 billion of revenue, as shown in AppLovin’s investor relations materials.
AppLovin Took Unity to Court Over Its Auction Data
In a filing reported by Digiday on September 29, AppLovin asked a San Francisco court for a temporary restraining order. The order would have barred Unity from collecting and using data tied to ads AppLovin serves through MAX, its mediation platform, including clearing prices and auction identifiers. AppLovin also opened a JAMS arbitration alleging breach of contract and trade-secret misappropriation. These are AppLovin’s allegations and have not been adjudicated.
Unity had offered to switch off its Ad Quality SDK’s collection from MAX-mediated auctions. AppLovin rejected the offer, saying in its filing that it was conditioned on ending the dispute and did not cover previously collected data or models allegedly trained on it. A Unity spokesperson called the filings “a classic case of a dominant incumbent resorting to litigation and intimidation to address increased competition and slowing growth.” The spokesperson added that Ad Quality “isn’t the driver of our improved performance.”
The case sits awkwardly beside the Q2 call. On August 5, Adam Foroughi, AppLovin’s co-founder and CEO, was asked whether Unity’s Vector platform could complement AppLovin. He replied, “I think we’ve proven over the last 5 years that this is not a zero-sum sector.” The filing targets how data was gathered, not competition itself. But AppLovin argued that the alleged collection could cause damage an arbitration award alone cannot fix, which shows how much weight it places on keeping its auction data to itself.
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Revenue Forecasts Fell, and AppLovin Now Trades Below Magnite
Analysts cut AppLovin’s FY2027 revenue consensus 3.88% to around $10.2 billion over the quarter ended September 30, and FY2028 fell 6.13% to around $12.6 billion. Q3 guidance of $2.055 billion to $2.085 billion implies 46% to 48% growth, down from 52.82% in Q2. A securities class action covering purchases from February 12 to August 5, 2026, also remains pending, and its allegations are unproven.
AppLovin still trades above The Trade Desk (TTD) at 7.55x NTM EV/EBITDA. But investors now pay less per dollar of its forward EBITDA than for Magnite, a company worth about 4% of AppLovin’s market value. That discount looks too wide for a company still guiding to growth above 45%, unless Unity’s gains inside MAX auctions start showing up in AppLovin’s own numbers.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $281.31
- Target Price (Mid): ~$566
- Potential Total Return: ~101%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case runs from the October 1 close to December 31, 2030. It projects around $566, a total return of about 101%, or around 18% a year. The case leans on earnings growth rather than a re-rating, with EPS rising around 19% a year over its 2025 to 2035 forecast while the P/E multiple shrinks. The primary risk is Unity and other rivals winning more of AppLovin’s own MAX auctions, which would slow that growth. A favorable arbitration outcome and a faster consumer ramp would push results above the mid case.
Conclusion
The next dated checkpoint is the October 23 hearing on sealing court records, which could make more of the dispute public. After that, AppLovin’s Q3 report matters less for Q3 itself than for its fourth-quarter guide. A range below the roughly $2.28 billion consensus would suggest competition is starting to show up in the numbers.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
