Key Stats for UnitedHealth Stock
- Current Price: $365.20
- Target Price (Mid): ~$586
- Street Target: ~$482
- Potential Total Return: ~61%
- Annualized IRR: ~12% / year
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What Happened?
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is shutting Medicare Advantage plans that cover about 390,000 people for 2027, a company spokesperson told Bloomberg on October 1. The pullback is industry-wide. At least 1 million seniors will have to switch plans, and Humana (HUM) expects its exits to affect about 600,000 members.
UnitedHealthcare’s notices to affected members are dated October 2. Its investor relations materials show Medicare Advantage enrollment of 7.565 million as of June 30, 2026. Shares closed at $365.20 on October 1, down 0.51%.
Management Says Competitive, Brokers See the Deepest Cuts
For 2026, UnitedHealth stopped operating more than 100 plans representing about 600,000 members, mostly PPOs. The two figures come from different announcements. Both count members in discontinued plans, not necessarily members leaving UnitedHealthcare.
At the Wells Fargo healthcare conference on September 9, Chief Financial Officer Wayne DeVeydt said “a lot of the medicine that we took in benefit redesign was coming into the ’26 year.” He said “a few markets where we’re rightsizing some of the products” remain, and added: “We think our benefits will be competitive.”
Brokers disagree. A Leerink note reported by Axios on September 10 said UnitedHealthcare appears to have dropped about 13% of plans across 18 states, and that it and Humana are likely cutting benefits the most. Bobby Hunter, who announced last year’s exits as head of government programs, said on September 28 that he is becoming UnitedHealthcare’s president under CEO Tim Noel.
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The Fourth Quarter Carries the Selling Season
Open enrollment runs from October 15 to December 7. TIKR consensus puts fourth-quarter EPS at around $2.10, against $2.11 a year earlier. That makes it the only one of the next five quarters projected to decline year over year, and the estimates do not say why. DeVeydt said the company is positioned to fund commission strategies and “unique investments we can make in Q4 around Stars for our future years.” Star ratings are Medicare’s quality scores, and plans rated 4 stars or higher earn bonus payments.
The full-year medical care ratio guide of 88.1%, plus or minus 25 basis points, compares with roughly 85.3% in the first half. That works out to $148.8 billion of medical costs on $174.5 billion of premiums, per the second-quarter release. The first half included $860 million of net favorable reserve development in the second quarter, mostly from 2026 dates of service. The guide, therefore, already implies a second-half ratio above 88.1%, and that is where any fourth-quarter spending has to fit.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $365.20
- Target Price (Mid): ~$586
- Potential Total Return: ~61%
- Annualized IRR: ~12% / year
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The mid case is the model’s central scenario. Street estimates in TIKR take revenue from about $447 billion in 2026 to about $557 billion in 2030, and normalized EPS from around $20 to around $36. Only three analysts estimate the 2030 revenue. Fewer Medicare Advantage members work against that revenue path, so margins carry more of the load.
Washington is the primary risk. The 29.98% drawdown that bottomed on March 27, 2026, followed CMS’s January proposal of a 0.09% rate increase for 2027, along with soft revenue guidance. The final rule came in at about 2.48%. Upside comes if displaced members stay inside UnitedHealthcare plans.
Conclusion
Third-quarter results on October 13 cannot settle open enrollment, which ends December 7, but they can test the cost side. A medical care ratio guide held at or below 88.1% leaves room for fourth-quarter spending; a guide above 88.35%, the top of the range, would not. Any early read on 2027 membership will show whether “competitive” benefits hold up against the broker view.
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So what is UnitedHealth stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
