Key Takeaways
- Pfizer yields about 6% and Bristol Myers about 4%, and each has more than $22 billion of revenue from drugs losing U.S. exclusivity by 2028, including Eliquis, which they share.
- Pfizer’s cash dividend payout ratio is a risky 89% TTM, against a comfortable 45% for Bristol Myers.
- Bristol Myers’s cliff is the bigger share of its business, at 51% of 2025 revenue against 36% for Pfizer, and consensus has its revenue falling 21% by 2029 against 14% for Pfizer.
- Bristol Myers raised its dividend in December for a 17th straight year, while Pfizer’s has been $0.43 a quarter since early 2025.
Pfizer (PFE) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) have the same problem. Part of it is literally the same drug: Eliquis, which the two companies share, faces U.S. generics in 2028.
Add in the rest of each company’s patent cliff, and both have more than $22 billion of 2025 revenue riding on drugs losing exclusivity by 2028. Neither has cut. Bristol Myers declared its latest quarterly dividend on Sept. 16, and its December raise marked, in its own words, “the 17th consecutive year the company has increased its dividend and the 94th consecutive year it has paid a dividend.”
Pfizer’s dividend has been $0.43 a quarter since early 2025, but it pays the bigger yield: about 6%, against about 4% for Bristol Myers. So with both cliffs coming, which dividend is actually safer?
| Metric | Pfizer (PFE) | Bristol Myers (BMY) |
|---|---|---|
| Forward yield | 5.99% | 3.94% |
| Dividend growth a year, 5 yrs | 2.4% | 6.2% |
| Streak | No raise since early 2025 | 17 straight years of raises |
| Cash dividend payout ratio, TTM | 89.1% | 44.5% |
| Net debt ÷ EBITDA, TTM | 1.97x | 1.74x |
| Revenue facing patent expiry (share of 2025 revenue) | $22.65 billion (36%) | $24.49 billion (51%) |
Source: TIKR, prices at the Sept. 28, 2026 close; patent exposure from each company’s 2025 10-K.
Pfizer: the 6% payer
Pfizer’s underlying business is growing. Second-quarter revenue was $15.0 billion, up 1% operationally and up 5% excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid, while its launched and acquired products grew 18%. Management raised its 2026 revenue guidance by $500 million at the midpoint.
The dividend is where it gets uncomfortable…
Dividends outran free cash flow in two of the last three years, and I don’t love that.
In 2025, Pfizer paid $9.77 billion in dividends on $9.08 billion of free cash flow. Over the last 12 months, it paid $9.79 billion on $10.98 billion, a cash dividend payout ratio of 89%.
The catch is what comes next. Pfizer expects losing exclusivity to cost it just $1.5 billion of revenue in 2026, and its annual report says the hit grows significantly through 2030. Drugs whose basic U.S. patents run out in 2026 or 2027 brought in $22.65 billion last year, 36% of revenue. Eliquis ($7.96 billion) and the Vyndaqel family ($6.38 billion) account for most of that.
Bristol Myers: the handoff is underway
Second-quarter revenue rose 6% to $13.0 billion. Its Growth Portfolio jumped 15% to $7.6 billion, while its Legacy Portfolio fell 4% to $5.4 billion as generics ate into older drugs (Eliquis demand actually rose). CEO Christopher Boerner says the Growth Portfolio “represents an expanding share of our overall business,” and management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $49.0 billion to $50.0 billion.
And the dividend has room to spare…
Free cash flow covered the dividend more than twice over in every one of those years, which is exactly the cushion I want.
Over the last 12 months, Bristol Myers paid $5.09 billion in dividends on $11.44 billion of free cash flow, a cash dividend payout ratio of 45%.
The risk is the cliff, and it’s bigger here. Eliquis ($14.44 billion) and Opdivo ($10.05 billion) brought in $24.49 billion last year, 51% of revenue, and both lose U.S. exclusivity in 2028. Its raises have also gotten small: December’s was 1.6%.
So which dividend wins?
Ultimately, I have to go with Bristol Myers on this one. Its cash dividend payout ratio is a comfortable 45% TTM, against a risky 89% for Pfizer. Plus, Bristol Myers has raised for 17 straight years, and Pfizer hasn’t raised since early 2025.
Yes, Bristol Myers’s cliff is steeper…
I won’t pretend a 21% drop in revenue by 2029, against 14% for Pfizer, is small.
But its replacement is further along, with one catch: Opdivo, a third of the Growth Portfolio at $2.49 billion last quarter, is one of the drugs losing exclusivity in 2028, and its sales slipped 3%. The rest of that portfolio, led by Reblozyl, Camzyos, Breyanzi and Opdualag, is doing the growing. For a dividend I’m counting on for years, that matters.
This isn’t to say Pfizer’s dividend is in trouble. Its business outside Comirnaty and Paxlovid is growing, management raised guidance in August, and CEO Albert Bourla was emphatic on the company’s latest earnings call: “even the most stretched scenarios that we are running, we will be able to maintain our dividend.” He expects raises to resume once the patent cliff has passed. And a 6% yield pays you well while you wait: about $599 a year on every $10,000, against $394 for Bristol Myers. It’s just that, when it comes down to it, I trust Bristol Myers’s cushion more.
So what is Bristol Myers Squibb stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
