Key Stats for Roku Stock
- Current Price: $152.14
- Target Price (Mid): ~$315
- Street Target: ~$162
- Potential Total Return: ~107%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Fox Corporation (FOXA) would owe Roku (ROKU) a $1,237,262,000 regulatory termination fee, about $8.34 per Roku share, in two cases: if an antitrust order stops their merger, or if the deal’s deadline passes with only regulatory clearance missing. The terms are set out in the joint proxy statement in Roku’s investor relations materials. Roku closed at $152.14 on September 29, below the value of Fox’s cash-and-stock offer.
What Fox and Roku Told Analysts About Antitrust in June
On the June 15 deal call, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris noted that “the regulatory termination fee is over $1 billion” and asked about approvals. Fox Executive Chair and CEO Lachlan Murdoch replied, “Principally, we have HSR approvals in the United States,” plus what he called very limited international approvals.
The Justice Department issued a Second Request on September 8, which both companies called expected. They still target a first-half 2027 close.
On September 24, Semafor reported that Newsmax (NMAX) CEO Chris Ruddy and allies in the White House were pressing enforcers to block the deal. Newsmax is also pursuing a refiled antitrust suit against Fox, whose unproven claims Fox rejects. That is reported lobbying, not a filed challenge.
A July 16 letter from Democratic lawmakers raised concerns, including free-streaming overlap between Fox’s Tubi and The Roku Channel, and Fox content being favored on Roku’s home screen. Management addressed both in June:
- Home screen: Roku Founder and CEO Anthony Wood told Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall that promoting Fox content would raise home screen profit: “Actually, it’s going to increase profitability.” Using sports as his example, he said it “won’t be done in a way that’s going to hurt other partners.”
- Audience overlap: Murdoch said the services share about one-third of their audiences and that Fox expects to keep them separate.
See historical and forward estimates for Roku stock (It’s free!) >>>
An Antitrust Break Would Leave Roku About $22 a Share in Cash
The fee applies only in those two cases. If Fox’s Class B holders vote the deal down without a change in the Fox board’s recommendation, Fox owes up to $70 million in expenses instead.
The fee goes to Roku, not directly to shareholders. It would join $2,083.08 million in net cash on Roku’s latest balance sheet, about $14.04 per share, for roughly $22 per share of corporate cash.
Q2 2026 EBITDA of $254.32 million beat the Street estimate of around $171 million by 48.62%. Fox CFO Steven Tomsic said Roku was “reaching or on track to reach the $1 billion free cash flow milestone in the next year or 2.” TIKR estimates put 2027 free cash flow at around $1.07 billion.
As of September 29, Roku traded at around 26x EV/EBITDA on next-twelve-months estimates. That is up from nearly 19x on March 31, before its first-quarter report and the June sale talks. Among the four entertainment peers with TIKR data, Netflix (NFLX) trades near 16x, Disney (DIS) near 9x, and the median is around 14x.
Wedbush, rated neutral, expects the deal to clear and bases its $155 target on 16 times a 2028 EBITDA estimate of $1.3 billion. Fox’s $160 price was a 34% premium to Roku’s unaffected June 11 price, which implies roughly $119.
See how Roku performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $152.14
- Target Price (Mid): ~$315
- Potential Total Return: ~107%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Roku stock (It’s free!) >>>
The TIKR model’s mid case values Roku as a standalone company, a path open to holders only if the merger fails. It puts Roku at around $315 by December 31, 2030, a total return of around 107%, or about 19% a year. Street revenue estimates for 2027, from 27 analysts, sit around $6.3 billion, against $4,737.25 million in 2025. The main risk is a broken deal pulling the multiple back toward 19x before that growth arrives. On the upside, the scenario is roughly double the September 29 close. On the downside, the unaffected price of roughly $119 sits about 22% below that close.
Conclusion
Both companies hold special meetings on October 14. Wood and associated trusts, which hold a majority of Roku’s voting power, agreed to vote for the deal.
On the Fox side, only Class B holders vote. Fox’s directors and executive officers are expected to vote yes and, with affiliates, beneficially owned 38.76% of those shares as of August 27.
Separately, the DOJ waiting period runs until 30 days after both companies substantially comply with the Second Request, unless it ends earlier or is extended. A court order blocking the merger would trigger the fee, while clearance makes Fox’s share price the number that decides what holders receive.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
So what is Roku stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Roku could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
