Key Stats for Carvana Stock
- Current Price: $63.62
- Target Price (Mid): ~$112
- Street Target: ~$83
- Potential Total Return: ~76%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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What Happened?
Carvana (CVNA) closed at $63.62 on September 29, 2026, up 5.21%, one session after a roughly 7% drop left it at $60.47. A Jefferies note that day showed web-scrape unit growth averaging about 40% in September’s first three weeks. CarMax (KMX) rose 4.74% after fiscal second-quarter results that beat estimates, and one market report read the session as a sector rally with no Carvana-specific news.
CarMax Traded $111 a Car for Volume as Carvana’s Growth Picked Back Up
Jefferies’ website data shows Carvana’s unit growth bottoming at 23% in early July, averaging 35% for the month, and reaching 41% in August, against 38% in the second quarter. The firm suspects that added reconditioning capacity and new productivity software kept website inventory growing near 30%. Its own forecast of around 35% unit growth for the third quarter sits below both the scrape and Q2’s pace, and all of these figures are estimates, not reported results.
CarMax took a different route. In its quarter ended August 31, retail used units rose 13.8% after it cut gross profit per retail used unit by $111 to $2,105. Management credited roughly half its comparable-sales improvement to FTC enforcement, pushing dealers to fold fees into advertised prices.
Carvana is expected to benefit from the same shift. At J.P. Morgan’s auto conference on August 12, Chief Financial Officer Mark Jenkins said industry sticker prices rose more than usual in the second quarter, which he linked to dealers complying, and that “a notable fact is Carvana has never charged doc or dealer fees.” On the size of the benefit, he said, “I think it’s hard to say,” and CarMax’s results suggest Carvana is sharing it with a fixed-price rival that is also willing to cut margin.
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Q2’s Record EBITDA Came With a Thinner Margin
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA hit a record $769 million, but the margin slipped to 10.43% from 12.42% a year earlier. Full-year guidance of $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion implies an adjusted EBITDA margin around 9% to 10% on consensus revenue near $29 billion, below 2025’s 11.0%. FY2026 normalized EPS consensus of around $1.63 also trails 2025’s $1.69, though 2025 net income included a $621 million net non-cash benefit.
Management’s path to its 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin target for 2030 to 2035 runs through fixed-cost and advertising leverage. Jenkins said advertising per unit runs several hundred dollars lower in Carvana’s more mature markets than company-wide.
Investors marked the stock down while revenue forecasts rose. The FY2026 revenue consensus is up about 14% since the end of 2025, while the stock is down 24.6%. Its NTM P/E has compressed from about 63x to about 31x as the price fell and the forward earnings window rolled ahead, yet it still sits well above CarMax’s roughly 18x and fellow dealer AutoNation’s (AN) roughly 7x.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $63.62
- Target Price (Mid): ~$112
- Potential Total Return: ~76%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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The model card prices only its mid case at December 31, 2030. The low and high cases appear on a longer horizon running to the end of 2034, where the low case works out to around 5% a year and the mid case to around 11%. Across that window, the mid case assumes revenue growth around 15% a year, a net income margin around 4%, and a P/E that shrinks around 8% a year.
The ~$112 target sits above Jefferies’ $88, and the Street mean near $83, though those are analyst price targets rather than 2030 values. Upside comes from Carvana compounding units near Jefferies’ pace without matching CarMax’s price cuts. Downside comes from a shared FTC tailwind and a price-cutting rival holding Carvana’s margin near 10% for longer.
Conclusion
Carvana’s third-quarter report is expected in late October. Consensus calls for revenue around $7.6 billion, up around 35%, and EBITDA near $790 million, roughly the same margin as Q2’s 10.43%. Unit growth near Jefferies’ pace with a wider margin would show Carvana outgrowing CarMax without matching its price cuts. A thinner margin would mean the growth is costing more than the headline suggests.
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So what is Carvana stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
