Carvana Stock Sits a Third Below Its High While Wall Street Sees Over 30% Upside

Key Takeaways

• Carvana shares closed at $60.47 on September 28 after a 7% drop, which left them well below the 52-week high of $97.38.
• Analysts expect revenue to grow around 43% this year to roughly $29 billion, yet consensus EPS of around $1.63 would land slightly under the $1.69 Carvana earned last year.
• The Street’s mean target of around $83 implies over 30% upside, though a beta near 3.5 means the shares can swing hard in both directions.
• Third-quarter results will show whether gross margin, which has sat near 20%, can start rising as Carvana adds reconditioning capacity.

Value your favorite stocks like Carvana with 5 years of analysts’ forecasts using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>

Revenue Is Growing Faster Than Earnings

Carvana’s (CVNA) sales have taken a winding road. They fell from $13.6 billion in fiscal 2022 to $10.8 billion in fiscal 2023, then rebounded to $13.7 billion in 2024 and $20.3 billion in 2025, and the chart below carries the story forward with consensus estimates through fiscal 2030.

Analysts see revenue near $29 billion this year, up roughly 43%, and around $60 billion by fiscal 2030, about triple the 2025 figure.

Earnings are moving more slowly. Consensus EPS for this year sits around $1.63, a little below the $1.69 Carvana earned in 2025, and estimates only reach around $2.60 by 2028. Much of the money behind this growth is going into capacity, from a reconditioning center in Charlotte to same-day delivery in Minneapolis.

Third-quarter consensus calls for revenue of around $7.6 billion, up roughly 35% from a year ago, so the pace is expected to hold.

Gross Margin Has Plateaued Near 20%

Margins help explain why profits trail sales. Gross margin bottomed at 9.21% in fiscal 2022, climbed to 21.03% in 2024, and eased to 20.63% in 2025, with the trailing twelve-month figure at 19.4%. The chart below shows the full path.

Read together, those years look like a rebuild that has since leveled off. Growth this fast can hold margins down because Carvana has to add inventory, reconditioning capacity, and logistics ahead of demand, so the direction of this line matters as much as the revenue estimates.

Trailing operating margin is 8.9%, and net debt of $2.6 billion works out to about 1x EBITDA. Scale makes each point count: at around $29 billion in revenue, one point of gross margin is worth roughly $290 million in gross profit.

See historical and forward estimates for Carvana (It’s Free!) >>>

Should You Buy Carvana Stock?

Estimates for growth and margins are only the starting inputs. TIKR’s valuation model converts them into a range of possible returns, using the September 28 close of $60.47 as its base.

The mid case has revenue growing around 15% a year through 2035, net margin holding near 4%, and EPS growing around 11% a year. It also lets the P/E multiple shrink by around 8% a year, which builds in a lower valuation over time for a stock that now trades near 30 times forward earnings.

On those inputs, the model points to around $107 by the end of 2030, a total return of roughly 77%, or around 14% annualized. Stretch the window to 2035 and annualized returns run from around 5% in the low case to around 11% in the mid case and around 16% in the high case.

The high case assumes revenue growth near 16% and EPS growth near 14%.

The bull case rests on revenue that could roughly triple by 2030, a gross margin that has climbed from around 9% to around 20%, and a Street target near $83, implying over 30% upside. Even the model’s low case produces a positive return.

Bears will focus on earnings expected to stay flat this year despite roughly 43% revenue growth, and on a gross margin that has stopped improving.

A beta near 3.5 and the 7% drop on September 28 show how quickly the shares can move, and a forward P/E near 30 leaves less room for error if growth slows.

See how Carvana performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>

So what is Carvana stock actually worth?

TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Carvana could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.

Value Carvana for free

See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Carvana Stock (It’s free!) >>>

Looking for New Opportunities?

• See which stocks billionaire investors are buying to follow the smart money.
• Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
• The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.

Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!