Can AST SpaceMobile Grow Revenue From $71 Million to More Than $3 Billion by 2030?

Key Takeaways

• AST SpaceMobile closed at $59.40 on September 29, down about 29% this year and more than 55% below its 52-week high of $133.86.
• Consensus has revenue rising from $71 million in fiscal 2025 to around $3.4 billion by fiscal 2030, and the company says it is on track for $150 million to $200 million this year.
• Shares outstanding have grown nearly fivefold since 2021 to around 300 million, and only 5 of 14 analyst ratings are Buy or Outperform.
• The third-quarter report will show how launches and revenue are tracking against full-year guidance.

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Revenue Is Expected to Grow Roughly 50-Fold

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is building a satellite network that talks directly to ordinary mobile phones, and its revenue comes from mobile carriers and government customers.

It has signed more than 60 mobile network operators that together cover over 3 billion subscribers, and it reports a revenue backlog of about $1.3 billion.

Sales are still tiny, though: $71 million in fiscal 2025, up from $4.4 million the year before. The chart below adds consensus estimates through fiscal 2030.

Analysts expect revenue of around $170 million this year, in line with the company’s $150 million to $200 million guidance, then around $650 million in fiscal 2027 and around $1.7 billion in fiscal 2028, reaching around $3.4 billion by fiscal 2030.

Revenue would then be roughly 50 times the fiscal 2025 level. Growth cools from around 285% in fiscal 2027 to around 30% in fiscal 2030, and the estimates depend on the company delivering the satellites it has in production.

Six spacecraft went up in a recent 50-day stretch, and BlueBirds 14 through 16 are next, with the company saying they will ship shortly. Second-quarter revenue was $31.5 million.

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The Share Count Has Grown Nearly Fivefold

Building a constellation takes capital, and shareholders have covered part of the bill. The weighted average share count went from 51.7 million in fiscal 2021 to 256.0 million in fiscal 2025, and TIKR now shows about 300 million shares outstanding.

In the first six months of 2026 alone, purchases of property and equipment came to $859.2 million. The chart below shows the share count climbing.

The company raised $1.15 billion in July through 1.625% convertible senior notes and reports more than $3.7 billion of pro forma cash as of June 30.

Each new share splits revenue and earnings across more owners, so per-share results need revenue to grow faster than the share count.

The second-quarter net loss was $230.9 million, or $0.77 per share, which includes a $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversion. On TIKR’s numbers, trailing EBIT margin is -410%.

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Should You Buy AST SpaceMobile Stock?

The stock closed at $59.40 on September 29, about 56% below its May high of $133.86 and down around 29% for the year. TIKR’s Street Targets table puts the mean target near $80, within a range of around $43 to $108, which implies around 34% upside from here.

The mean has slipped from around $89 in March, and the ratings are mixed: of 14, 5 are Buy or Outperform, 7 are Hold, and 2 are Underperform or Sell.

The bull case rests on execution. The company has 13 satellites in orbit, a backlog of about $1.3 billion, and more than $3.7 billion of pro forma cash, and it says it is on track for its full-year revenue guidance.

The bear case starts with delivery. The revenue estimates depend on satellites still in production, and the build has been funded so far by a share count that has grown nearly fivefold. With a beta near 2.7, the shares can fall as quickly as they rise.

So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!