Key Stats for Wells Fargo Stock
- Current Price: $80.50
- Model Entry Price: $80.48
- Target Price (Mid): ~$118
- Potential Total Return: ~47%
- Annualized IRR: ~9.5% / year
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What Happened?
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) closed at $80.50 on September 29, 2026, down 13.6% from its $93.20 finish to 2025. The latest leg came after the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023 on September 16. That was one day after the bank’s CFO said a quarter-point hike would give its banking book a small lift.
Its credit standing improved over the same stretch: as of September 30, Wells Fargo lists S&P Global Ratings at A- with a stable outlook on the holding company, up from BBB+ at June 30. The TIKR model’s mid case points to about 9.5% annual returns through 2030, and the bank’s investor relations materials put the next test on October 13.
The CFO Lifted the Margin Outlook a Day Before the Fed Hiked
At the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on September 15, Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said the third-quarter net interest margin was running ahead of plan, with a few weeks of the quarter left. The bank “came into the quarter thinking it will be down 3 or 4 basis points,” he said. “It’s likely to be maybe down 1, maybe flat.”
The banking book is “still modestly asset sensitive,” he said, while the markets business earns less net interest income and more fees as rates rise. He added that “some steepness to the yield curve would be helpful” and that a quarter-point move is unlikely to be “a big driver of activity one way or the other.”
During the September 16 session, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell 1.5% while Wells Fargo, Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C) each dropped more than 3% intraday. By the September 24 close, Wells Fargo was down 8.4% since the hike versus roughly 4% for the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), with 16 of 18 Fed officials projecting at least one more increase in 2026.
Asked whether Fed tightening changes the credit picture, Santomassimo said “we look all the time for cracks, and we’re just not seeing it yet.”
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Forward EPS Rose 8% as the Multiple Fell, but Q3 Loses a Tailwind
Consensus next-twelve-months normalized EPS has risen roughly 8% since the end of 2025, while the stock’s NTM P/E fell from about 14x to about 11x, according to TIKR data. Part of that EPS gain is the forward window rolling toward 2027, but the 2026 decline still came from the multiple rather than earnings.
Second-quarter diluted EPS of $2.00 included strong venture capital results and a $0.04 discrete tax benefit. Santomassimo expects venture results, roughly $850 million in the first half, to be “closer to flat” in the third quarter. He also expects investment banking fees and markets revenue to rise “probably sort of mid-single digits” year over year, after markets revenue rose 24% in the second quarter.
Consensus sits around $1.85 in third-quarter GAAP EPS, below the second quarter’s $2.00 but about 11% above the $1.66 reported a year earlier. Loan growth should still beat the bank’s original guidance, though Santomassimo said the growth rate “will get a little bit lower than what we saw in the first half,” after average loans rose 12% year over year in the second quarter.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $80.50
- Target Price (Mid): ~$118
- Potential Total Return: ~47%
- Annualized IRR: ~9.5% / year
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The mid case projects around $118 by December 31, 2030, with returns measured from the $80.48 entry price. Across the model’s full 2025 to 2035 forecast, the mid case assumes a revenue CAGR near 4%, net income margins near 25%, and a P/E that shrinks about 2% a year.
Revenue growth rests on post-asset-cap lending and fees, where Santomassimo said investment banking market share has moved “from the 2s to 4.3% more recently.” Margins depend on efficiency, including the autonomous coding agents, he said, the bank is choosing “instead of hiring more people.”
Because the model assumes a shrinking multiple, a stable P/E would push returns above the mid case. The main risk to the earnings path is a Fed that keeps hiking while deposit costs rise.
Conclusion
Wells Fargo reports third-quarter results before the market opens on Tuesday, October 13. A net interest margin flat to down 1 basis point would confirm the September update, while a decline closer to the original 3 to 4 basis points would mean the late-quarter improvement did not hold. Judge EPS against the near-flat venture outlook rather than the second quarter’s $2.00.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
