Key Stats for Shopify Stock
- Price change for Shopify stock in the last 6 months: 25%
- $SHOP Stock Price as of Sep. 29: $148
- 52-Week High: $182
- $SHOP Stock Price Target: $173
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What Happened?
Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) shares rose almost 3% after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Wood reiterated his positive view on the company on September 29.
Wood’s argument centers on “agentic” shopping. This is when AI assistants help people find and buy products for them. He believes Shopify is well placed to benefit from this shift.
The key reason is how Shopify makes money. It earns revenue when merchants make sales, not from advertising.
So as AI changes how people shop, Shopify still gets paid when a purchase happens.
Companies that rely on ad revenue may face more pressure.
Management said the same thing on the Q2 earnings call.
President Harley Finkelstein explained that sales made through AI agents carry the same economics as regular online store sales.
There are no new fees and no separate pricing. More AI-driven sales simply means more revenue for Shopify.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Shopify Stock
The move in Shopify stock suggests investors like this argument, and the early data backs it up.
In Q2, AI-driven traffic and orders to Shopify stores both tripled compared with a year ago. New buyer orders from AI channels came in at nearly twice the rate of other channels.
The volume is still small compared to the whole business, but it’s growing fast.
Shopify’s product Catalog is a big part of this. It organizes merchants’ product data so AI tools can find and recommend items.
According to management, AI searches powered by Catalog convert at twice the rate of searches using scraped data.
Smaller merchants also seem to be winning. In Q2, 75% of AI-attributed orders came from outside Shopify’s top 100 categories.
AI agents match products to specific needs, not just popular keywords. That helps niche brands, which make up most of Shopify’s merchant base.
The core business is strong too. In Q2, gross merchandise volume (the total value of sales on the platform) rose 32% to $116 billion.
Revenue grew 34% to $3.6 billion, and the free cash flow margin was 18%.
Management expects Q3 revenue growth in the low 30s.
For Shopify stock, the bigger picture is its growing share of online shopping.
According to eMarketer, Shopify merchants have captured nearly half of all new U.S. e-commerce dollars since the start of 2025.
Still, agentic shopping is early. Investors holding Shopify stock will want to see whether AI-driven sales grow into a meaningful part of total volume over the next few quarters.
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How Much Upside Does Shopify Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
