Key Stats for PDD Holdings Stock
- Current Price: $77.50
- Target Price (Mid): ~$127
- Street Target: ~$114
- Potential Total Return: ~65%
- Annualized IRR: ~12% / year
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What Happened?
PDD Holdings (PDD) does not report Temu separately in its investor relations materials, which makes rival Shein Global Holdings (0625.HK) one of the few outside reads on the business. Shein released its first results as a public company on September 28. Its shares fell as much as 14% intraday in Hong Kong on September 29 after first-half operating income dropped 53%.
Around those results, Bloomberg reported that two core Shein suppliers, speaking anonymously, said their business with Temu had also weakened, and that Temu’s global web traffic had fallen since March. The same report noted that Temu has posted single- to double-digit growth in the U.S. since April, that some weakness may reflect a broader e-commerce pullback, and that Temu did not immediately respond to a request for comment. PDD closed at $78.49 on September 28 and $77.50 on September 29.
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Analysts Already Expect Q3 Earnings to Fall About 11%
For the quarter that ended September 30, consensus calls for revenue of around CN¥116 billion, up about 7%, and adjusted EPS of around CN¥19 per ADS, down about 11% from a year earlier. Analysts then expect a roughly 15% EPS rebound in Q4.
Europe is one pressure point. Shein said its Q2 Europe sales fell 13.9% to $3.77 billion as higher prices and lower ad spending ahead of the EU’s July 1 parcel fees cut volumes. Q3 is the first full quarter of those fees for Temu’s cross-border orders.
The FY2026 revenue consensus has fallen from around CN¥575 billion in March 2025 to around CN¥466 billion, a 19% cut. That includes a further reduction of about 3% since June 30. TIKR shows 17 Buy, 4 Outperform, 14 Hold, 1 No Opinion, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell ratings, against 24 Buys a year earlier.
The share price ended the period close to where it began, at $76.28 on June 30 and $77.50 on September 29, even as those cuts landed. The supplier reports test whether the lower bar is low enough.
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Management Won’t Put a Timeline on Ad Growth
Online marketing services, the line that captures merchant ad spending, grew 3.5% in Q2 to RMB 57.6 billion, after rising 13% a year earlier.
Bank of America’s Joyce Ju asked whether a healthier merchant base would spend more on advertising. Co-Chairman and Co-CEO Zhao Jiazhen answered with examples of merchants reinvesting in products. VP of Finance Jun Liu, turning to monetization, said: “Over time, by getting these fundamentals right, we believe the sustainable growth in the platform’s intrinsic value will naturally follow.”
Co-Chairman and Co-CEO Chen Lei set the bar for the supply chain push: “We are confident in our ability to translate our 3-year initiative of building another PDD into tangible, verifiable results.” With ad growth at 3.5% and the Temu signals mixed, the Q4 rebound analysts expect needs one of the two to improve.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $77.50
- Target Price (Mid): ~$127
- Potential Total Return: ~65%
- Annualized IRR: ~12% / year
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The mid case, measured from $77.50 over about 4.2 years, reaches around $127 by December 31, 2030. Its roughly 7% annual revenue growth assumption, set across the model’s 2025 to 2035 forecast, sits below the roughly 10% annual pace analysts forecast for the next two years.
The model assumes a net margin of about 24% and trims the P/E ratio by about 4% a year, so the return depends on earnings rather than a rerating.
Reaching it needs ad growth to recover and Temu to hold volume. If online marketing growth stays near 3.5% and Temu’s traffic keeps sliding, even that below-consensus 7% path looks generous.
Conclusion
PDD reported Q3 2025 on November 18, 2025, and gave one week’s notice before each of its last four reports. Online marketing growth above Q2’s 3.5% would suggest the ad business can absorb a softer Temu. Another quarter near that pace, alongside the roughly 11% EPS decline analysts expect, would leave room for further cuts to the 2026 estimates.
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So what is PDD Holdings stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
