Key Takeaways
- Cameco stock has fallen 24% in six months to $85 on October 2, after a July 1 Cigar Lake suspension and a Q2 adjusted EPS of C$0.18 against C$0.38 expected.
- Q2 net earnings sank 92% YoY to C$25M as Westinghouse turned to a loss.
- The Street splits 11 buys, 8 outperforms and 2 holds, and the C$179 mean target sits 47% above the C$121 close.
- Since March 31, the mean target has edged up from C$175 to C$179 while Price/NAV compressed from 1.83x to 1.45x.
Cameco Stock Fell 24% After a Cigar Lake Halt and a Q2 Earnings Miss
Cameco Corporation (CCO) closed at $85 on October 2, leaving Cameco stock down 24% over six months. The slide accelerated on July 1, when Cameco temporarily suspended its Cigar Lake uranium mine because of problems at Orano’s McClean Lake mill. Cameco initially expected the disruption to last about two weeks without affecting its 2026 production outlook, but warned that additional delays could put that outlook at risk.
The July 31 Q2 report added the earnings damage. Adjusted EPS of C$0.18 missed the C$0.38 consensus by more than half, and net earnings fell 92% to C$25 million. Cameco’s share of Westinghouse swung to a C$10 million net loss from C$126 million of net earnings a year earlier. The comparison was tough because the 2025 quarter included an approximately US$170 million boost to Cameco’s share of Westinghouse revenue and adjusted EBITDA from the Dukovany reactor project.
CEO Tim Gitzel addressed the operating side on the earnings call, citing unplanned disruptions at Key Lake and McArthur River alongside the Cigar Lake halt: “we’ve been reminded that safely operating complex, heavily regulated uranium mining and milling assets in remote Northern Saskatchewan is never without challenges.” Production guidance held at 19.5 million to 21.5 million pounds, so the multiple took the hit.
TIKR’s NTM normalized P/E shows how far the repricing ran: Cameco stock peaked at 111x forward earnings in the spring and now trades at 60x, level with its multi-year average and 46% below the high. The multiple fell by nearly half while the Street’s mean target held at C$179, which locates the decline in what investors will pay per dollar of earnings.
The stock then rebounded from $85 in late July to $107 in August and gave the whole gain back, even after Jefferies and TD Cowen initiated at buy with C$190 targets on September 3. Cameco acknowledged a US and South Korea framework for up to eight Westinghouse reactors on September 30, and the shares closed that day at C$123 before ending the week at C$121.
Cameco stock lost 24% as operating setbacks and weaker Westinghouse earnings weighed on a highly valued stock, even as full-year uranium production guidance remained unchanged.
Analysts See 47% Upside in Cameco Stock as Holds Fall From 5 to 2
Analyst ratings stand at 11 buys, 8 outperforms and 2 holds, with holds down from 5 on June 30 while buys rose from 10. The mean target of C$179 sits 47% above the C$121 Toronto close, unchanged from June 30 even as the shares fell 16%.
The lowest of 14 price targets, C$135, still sits 11% above the close. Mean NAV estimates edged up from C$82 to C$84 per share since March 31 while Price/NAV fell from 1.83x to 1.45x, so the repricing in Cameco stock happened in the multiple.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
