Key Stats for Reddit Stock
- Current Price: $149.84
- Target Price (Mid): ~$305
- Street Target: ~$214
- Potential Total Return: ~104%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
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What Happened?
Reddit (RDDT) closed at $149.84 on September 25, down 34.8% from the end of 2025. Over the same stretch, TIKR consensus for 2028 revenue rose from around $4.8 billion to around $5.5 billion. That’s past the range investors fear Reddit will stall in.
CEO Steve Huffman addressed that range at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 8, listing it among the misconceptions he hears: “I think investors worry that Reddit is going to get stuck at the $4 billion to $5 billion revenue range because some of our similarly scaled peers have gotten stuck there.”
Huffman’s Case Rests on Reach and Commerce
Huffman’s case against the ceiling is reach and commerce: “our TAM is literally everybody,” he said, and “40% of the conversations on Reddit are commercial.”
Reddit has topped the high end of its own revenue guidance in each of the last five quarters, by 11% in Q2. Its Q3 guide of $860 million to $870 million implies growth of about 48% at the midpoint, down from 61% in Q2. The average estimate of around $872 million sits just above the top of that range.
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U.S. Users Explain Why Reddit Trades Below Meta
U.S. daily active uniques slipped to 53.2 million in Q2 from 53.5 million in Q1 as search referrals turned choppy. On July 30, Huffman said Google’s AI Overviews can’t replace traditional search links for traffic.
U.S. logged-in users grew just 1% year over year. U.S. revenue still grew 56%, as revenue per U.S. daily user rose 51% to $11.85. International daily users rose 28% to 77.1 million, with $2.26 in revenue each.
Shares fell 20.99% the session after the report. Reddit will also stop disclosing the logged-in split starting with Q3.
Huffman argued that traffic “that’s logged out or transient is just less meaningful to us, which is why we can see volatility in SEO traffic, and that doesn’t turn into volatility in our business.”
Reddit’s NTM P/E ratio of around 18x sits below Meta Platforms’ at around 23x and Alphabet’s at around 26x. The discount disappears on NTM EV/EBITDA, where Reddit’s around 15x tops Meta’s around 12x. The P/E flatters Reddit: its 2026 normalized EPS estimate of around $7.70 runs well above the GAAP estimate of around $5.40.
Reddit’s content deals with Google and OpenAI reportedly expire next year. Huffman declined to discuss the Google talks in detail because Reddit is “in active negotiation.” Other revenue, including licensing, was 5.3% of Q2 sales.
A San Francisco judge let three of Reddit’s five claims against Anthropic over data scraping proceed and allowed the other two to be refiled. The allegations remain unproven.
DA Davidson cut its target to $185 from $200 on September 18 but kept a Buy. BNP Paribas started coverage at Neutral with a $180 target the same day, and Guggenheim reiterated a Buy on September 16. Reddit holds $2,765.49 million in net cash, and Huffman said 2026 buybacks are “probably on track for about $500 million.”
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $149.84
- Target Price (Mid): ~$305
- Potential Total Return: ~104%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Reddit stock (It’s free!) >>>
Getting there needs both Q2 revenue drivers to keep working: international users (up 28%) and U.S. revenue per user (up 51%). It also needs the margin expansion consensus expects, with EBITDA margin rising from 38.4% in 2025 to around 51% by 2030.
The primary risk is flat U.S. users arriving alongside weaker licensing renewals. Street targets typically look 12 months ahead, so the $300 Street high implies a faster path than this 2030 scenario. The upside is that estimates continue to climb, as they have since June 30. The downside: the Street’s lowest target, $130, sits 13.2% below the current price.
Conclusion
Q3 is the next checkpoint; Reddit reported Q3 2025 on October 30, 2025. Two numbers settle the ceiling debate: revenue above the around $872 million consensus, and U.S. daily active uniques back above Q1’s 53.5 million. Clear both, and around 18x forward earnings looks too low for a business consensus sees growing around 32% in 2027.
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Should You Invest in Reddit?
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Pull up Reddit, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
