Key Stats for Eli Lilly Stock
- Current Price: $1,183.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$2,060
- Street Target: ~$1,325
- Potential Total Return: ~74%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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What Happened?
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) closed essentially flat at $1,183.46 on Sept. 25, after a federal jury found it breached the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing in a former license with Nektar Therapeutics. The Sept. 24 verdict awarded Nektar $90 million plus interest, well short of the $1 billion Nektar sought, according to Law360, and Lilly told BioSpace it will seek reversal, arguing “the correct amount is zero.”
The award’s size helps explain the muted reaction: it equals roughly 0.1% of Lilly’s 2026 revenue consensus, which Wall Street has raised by nearly $12 billion since Dec. 31, 2025, to about $88.4 billion, per TIKR. That sits above the $85 billion to $87 billion guidance in Lilly’s investor relations materials, yet the stock is up just 10.1% in 2026.
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An FDA Approval, a Jury Verdict, and a Flat Close
The verdict came the same day the FDA approved Onswik, Lilly’s once-weekly basal insulin for type 2 diabetes, and Lilly announced a research licensing deal. Shares traded more than 3% higher intraday on Sept. 24, per Benzinga, and closed at $1,181.89 as health care stocks also rose. On Sept. 25, they dipped about 1.25%, per Benzinga, before recovering.
The verdict remains open to post-trial motions and appeal. A broader legal overhang predates this week: Lilly’s filings disclose a federal multidistrict case over claims that Mounjaro, Trulicity, and Zepbound caused NAION, a sudden vision-loss condition, with Novo Nordisk also sued. The Wall Street Journal detailed those suits on Sept. 19, and both companies dispute causation while the FDA investigates a possible link without requiring a U.S. warning.
Lilly’s Multiple Fell While Commercial Coverage Stalled Near 50%
Per TIKR, Lilly’s forward 12-month EPS estimate rose from about $31 to about $42 since Dec. 31, partly as the window rolled into 2027, cutting its forward P/E from about 34x to about 28x. No source pins that on one cause, but Lilly’s disclosures flag lower realized prices, cited in Q2, and insurance coverage.
Ilya Yuffa, Lilly’s executive vice president and president of Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities, told a Morgan Stanley conference on Sept. 14, “I think on the commercial side, we’ve been relatively stagnant on 50%,” and “I don’t see kind of a step change coming into ’27 on either direction.” He added that Lilly is “in discussions with many employers on adding coverage.”
Separately, the Business Group on Health found the share of surveyed employers covering GLP-1s for weight management fell from 72% in 2025 to 60% in 2026. Lilly’s counter is its own study, not independent research, of Zepbound patients 55 and older: by 12 months, Yuffa said, “you can get upwards to $600 per month per person of benefit, which more than offsets the cost of the medicine.”
CEO David Ricks told CNBC on Sept. 21 that 700,000 seniors have started GLP-1s since coverage began July 1, with 70% on Lilly drugs, both by his count, calling it “very market expansionary, which is what we had hoped.” The Bridge program behind it is set to end after 2027, though Yuffa thinks its results will be “a net positive towards finding a solution past ’27.”
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $1,183.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$2,060
- Potential Total Return: ~74%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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TIKR’s mid case projects around $2,060 by Dec. 31, 2030, a total return of around 74%, or around 14% a year. Its inputs, stated over TIKR’s 2025 to 2035 forecast, assume revenue compounds around 11% a year and net margins reach around 44%, while the P/E shrinks about 2% a year.
Growth rests on Mounjaro and Zepbound volume plus Foundayo and, if approved, retatrutide; margins ride operating leverage on an 83.4% LTM gross margin. Pricing, coverage, and litigation are the main risks, and upside needs rising estimates with a stable multiple. The Street’s mean target of about $1,325 sits roughly 12% above the Sept. 25 close (19 Buys, 6 Outperforms, 3 Holds, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell), while the lowest, $930, sits about 21% below it.
Conclusion
Lilly’s Q3 report, expected in late October, comes next. Analysts expect Q3 revenue of about $22.4 billion, below Q2’s $22.974 billion after a first half aided by milestones and rebate adjustments. A guidance raise toward consensus of about $88.4 billion would suggest the multiple has room to recover; an unchanged range would suggest the Street ran ahead of Lilly.
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Should You Invest in Eli Lilly?
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Pull up Eli Lilly, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
