Key Stats for Tesla Stock
- Current Price: $372.11
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,945
- Street Target: ~$397
- Potential Total Return: ~423%
- Annualized IRR: ~47% / year
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What Happened?
Tesla (TSLA) formally opened its Semi factory in Sparks, Nevada, on the evening of Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026, nearly nine years after unveiling the truck. The first truck came off the line in April, and Tesla used the event to mark the start of high-volume production, featuring PepsiCo (PEP), DHL Group (DHL), and US Foods (USFD) as customers. In the next session, Tesla shares fell 1.54% to $372.11 while the S&P 500 rose 0.51%.
The Semi didn’t lift the stock, but the same stretch brought an analyst target cut and a European regulatory delay. Tesla’s investor relations materials carry the company’s filings.
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A 50,000-Truck Plant Tesla Expects to Stay Small in 2026
Tesla says the plant is designed for up to 50,000 Semis a year. That is capacity: Tesla hasn’t disclosed how many trucks the line builds or how many it has delivered. It follows a long slip, from a promised 2019 start to a July update that, according to Quartz, dropped Tesla’s forecast of volume production in 2026.
Einride ordered 500 trucks in August, and DHL and US Foods, both featured at the event, had tested the truck before the launch. Earlier the same week, a shipper coalition that includes longtime pilot user PepsiCo named Tesla primary supplier for a planned 2,500-truck program. Reports differ on whether that is a firm order, and other truck makers will also supply it.
Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, had already sized the truck on July 22, saying “the total number of units of the Tesla Semi is still low and will continue to be a very small percentage, even by the end of this year, of our total vehicle fleet.” He said Semi autonomy was “taking a bit of a backseat for the next 6 months or so,” with self-driving on the truck “probably around the end of this year or early next year.”
In Q2 2026, every vehicle outside the Model 3 and Model Y added up to 12,364 deliveries out of 480,126, a line Electrek says also covers the Semi. CFO Vaibhav Taneja said the quarter’s sequential rise in operating expenses included “preproduction ramp costs for new products like the Semi truck, Optimus, Cybercab and other AI initiatives.”
A Target Cut and a European FSD Delay Hit the Same Window
BNP Paribas Exane cut its target to $268 from $280 on Sept. 24 and kept an Underperform rating. On Sept. 25, Reuters and Electrek reported that the agenda for the EU’s Oct. 6 vehicle committee meeting lists only continued discussion of the Dutch request to approve Tesla’s supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD), pushing any bloc-wide vote to December at the earliest. Seven EU countries already allow it nationally.
The delay touches a demand lever Musk named in July: “as we get approval for FSD in different parts — different countries, I think we’ll see a similar uptick in demand.” Treasury yields also surged during the week of Sept. 21, and Taneja had said rising rates lift subvention costs, the financing support Tesla offers buyers.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $372.11
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,945
- Street Target: ~$397
- Potential Total Return: ~423%
- Annualized IRR: ~47% / year
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The mid case assumes revenue growth of around 22% a year, a net margin of around 24%, and a P/E multiple that shrinks around 6% a year, drawn from the model’s 2025 to 2035 assumptions. On a 2030 basis, TIKR consensus puts revenue at about $235 billion with a normalized net margin around 17%.
Getting there would take new vehicles such as the Semi and Cybercab, plus FSD software, where Taneja cited nearly 1.5 million paid customers, with a software mix and factory scale lifting margins. The primary risk is timing, as autonomy approvals keep slipping.
If the mid-case assumptions hold, the model implies about 47% a year from the Sept. 25 close, a scenario rather than a forecast. If the Street is closer to right, its mean target sits about 7% above that close, and BNP’s $268 target sits well below it.
Conclusion
Tesla’s Q3 delivery report, due in early October based on the company’s usual timing, probably won’t isolate the Semi, because the release reports only Model 3/Y and “Other Models.” The first useful read is Q3 earnings, expected in late October, if Tesla starts disclosing Semi units. By Electrek’s yardstick, 5,000 Semis shipped in 2027 would make it a real business, while 1,500 would leave the plant looking oversized.
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Should You Invest in Tesla?
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Pull up Tesla, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
