Key Stats for Oracle Stock
- Current Price: $137.10
- Target Price (Mid): ~$454
- Street Target: ~$238
- Potential Total Return: ~231%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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What Happened?
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) closed down 3.47% at $139.54 on September 24, 2026, after falling more than 6% at the open, when Bloomberg reported that it had sent a force majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, a New Mexico AI campus being built to support OpenAI. Shares slipped another 1.75% to close at $137.10 on September 25.
NVIDIA, AMD, and Micron also traded lower on September 24, while Oracle Corp Japan jumped more than 7% on September 25 after record fiscal first-quarter results.
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A Right to Defer Payments on a Site Short of Gas
Oracle is not trying to exit as Jupiter’s main tenant, according to Bloomberg’s sources; it wants the ability to put off payments if the campus misses its 2028 start. Oracle told CNBC the project “remains on our planned schedule” and called such notices commonplace, not proof of a delay. Blue Owl Capital, whose STACK Infrastructure unit is the developer, said the notice does not change the project’s financial commitments, yet its shares closed 3.6% lower.
The pressure point is fuel. The campus is designed to run on as much as 2.45 gigawatts of Bloom Energy fuel cells, and the Energy Transfer pipeline meant to supply their gas has slipped to February 1, 2027, after regulators repeatedly denied permits. Clay Magouyrk, one of Oracle’s two CEOs, named the other gate on the September 10 call: “We’re going through the process of acquiring our air permit.”
Fiscal 2027 was never Jupiter’s year. Oracle delivered 850 megawatts after fiscal Q4, and Magouyrk said none of Shackelford, New Mexico, Wisconsin, or Michigan was delivered in Q1. His rule for slippage: “if their plan relies on 100% achievement of every one of their deliverables, we have a term for that. It’s called a bad plan.”
Jupiter’s 2028 Target Lands in the Street’s Cash Flow Turn
TIKR consensus has Oracle’s free cash flow at around negative $38 billion in fiscal 2027 and around negative $33 billion in fiscal 2028, turning positive at around $7 billion in fiscal 2029, which runs from June 2028 to May 2029. Jupiter’s 2028 target straddles those two years, and Oracle has given no timeline for positive free cash flow. A payment deferral would ease outflows if the site slips, but its capacity and revenue would slip too.
Oracle’s credit default swaps hit a record high on September 24, and its 6.7% bonds due 2056, sold near par in early 2026, yielded above 8%. The stock trades at around 16x NTM P/E on normalized earnings, down from around 33x at the end of August 2025, and TIKR shows 27 Buy, 8 Outperform, 7 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings, with a mean target of around $238.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $137.10
- Target Price (Mid): ~$454
- Potential Total Return: ~231%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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The mid case points to around $454 by May 31, 2031, a total return of about 231%, or roughly 29% a year over 4.7 years. It is one scenario on stated assumptions, and its horizon runs well past the 12-month span of Street targets, which range from $110 to $400.
Two drivers carry revenue: AI capacity from campuses like Abilene, Texas, where 75% of capacity has been delivered to the customer, and applications, where Fusion grew 14% in Q1. The margin driver is the infrastructure ramp: TIKR consensus sees gross margin falling from 67.10% in fiscal 2026 to around 51% in fiscal 2029, and EBIT margin dipping from 42.9% to around 38%. CFO Hilary Maxson said “over the next couple of years, as we finish the ramp-up, you can reasonably expect that gross margin would flatten, I would say,” though she gave no formal guidance.
The primary risk is a contested site slipping past 2028 and pushing the cash turn out while borrowing costs rise. The upside is Jupiter’s pipeline and air permit landing on schedule. The downside marker is the Street’s lowest target, $110, about 20% below the September 25 close.
Conclusion
Oracle is scheduled to report fiscal Q2 on December 14, 2026, after guiding to 30% to 34% revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS of $1.85 to $1.93. A print in range with the full-year target of at least $90 billion intact keeps Jupiter a fiscal 2029 question; a change to the February 1, 2027, pipeline date, or a second notice at Wisconsin or Michigan, would pull it forward.
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Should You Invest in Oracle?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
