Key Stats for Salesforce Stock
- Current Price: $234.02
- Target Price (Mid): ~$450
- Street Target: ~$281
- Potential Total Return: ~93%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
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What Happened?
Salesforce (CRM) closed at $234.02 on September 25, 2026, down 11.66% from its $264.91 close at the end of 2025. Shares fell 1.76% in that session and are down 6.59% from their $250.54 close on September 16, the last close before the company’s 4 p.m. ET investor session. That slide trims a 36% rally from July 31.
The session, available through Salesforce’s investor relations materials, showed how the company plans to get paid for AI. The plan is to move customers up to premium editions, led by a $550-per-user-per-month tier that bundles the products it demoed, including Claudeforce. Whether that upgrade in math lifts growth decides whether the stock is a sell or a load-up.
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Salesforce Says Every 1% of Its Base Is Worth $100 Million
Patrick Stokes, President of Applications and Marketing, put the new AIforce Max edition “at $550 per user per month.” Claudeforce, which lets Anthropic’s Claude read and act on Salesforce data, remains an open beta. Once it reaches general availability, Stokes said, “you’ll have to buy it to keep it turned on.”
CEO Marc Benioff said one of the keynote’s two goals was to “motivate the upgrade also,” adding that “we want them to step into the higher version to be able to get the full value.” President and Chief Revenue Officer Alexa Vignone put a number on it: “For every 1% of the base we move, it’s $100 million.”
That base is core CRM users, concentrated in the Agentforce Sales and Agentforce Service segments, which brought in $18.846 billion in fiscal 2026, up about 8.5%. Vignone said the push has built $1 billion of annual order value over eight quarters, with about a 60% to 80% uplift per upgrade. Account-level annual recurring revenue expands only about 1.4 times, though, as customers remix products.
By our estimate, $1 billion every two years adds up to roughly one point of growth a year against fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion. That helps, but it cannot drive the reacceleration alone.
Seats Are Holding, but Growth Without Informatica Is Near 6%
“We haven’t seen still any decline on number of seats for sales or number of seats for services,” said Miguel Milano, who oversees go-to-market, though he acknowledged that could change.
In the quarter ended July 31, $456 million of the $11.345 billion in revenue came from Informatica, acquired in November 2025. Growth excluding it was about 6%. Third-quarter guidance of $11.42 billion to $11.50 billion implies 11% to 12% growth, including slightly more than 4 points from Informatica, or roughly 7% to 8% without it, still including Contentful and Fin.
Shares trade at around 16 times next-twelve-months earnings. On the same P/E basis, ServiceNow (NOW) trades near 30 times, Microsoft (MSFT) near 26 times, and SAP (SAP) near 24 times. That discount fits a company growing about 6% excluding Informatica, but it would look too wide if growth reaches the roughly 10% a year Street estimates project for fiscal 2028 through 2031.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $234.02
- Target Price (Mid): ~$450
- Potential Total Return: ~93%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
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TIKR’s mid case points to around $450 by January 31, 2031, measured from the $234.02 close. That is a total return of about 93%, or roughly 16% a year. The mid case is the central scenario. For context, Street estimates on TIKR have revenue rising from $41.525 billion in fiscal 2026 to about $68 billion in fiscal 2031, around a 10% CAGR, with adjusted EBIT margin widening from 34.1% to around 39%.
Revenue growth depends on premium upgrades and acquired products, including Contentful, which closed on September 1, and Fin, which closed on September 10. Margins lean on what President and Chief Operating and Financial Officer Robin Washington described as reducing the cost to serve. Wider Max and Claudeforce adoption could push growth past the model.
The main risk is that growth excluding acquisitions stays near 6% as agents eventually replace seats. Morgan Stanley frames the flat case. According to a summary of its post-session note, it kept an Equal-weight rating with a $235 target, roughly the September 25 close, even with about 10% revenue growth in its base case, and said Agentforce scaling is still early.
On the model’s math, the September 25 price leans toward loading up rather than selling. That holds only if growth excluding Informatica moves toward the guided 7% to 8%.
Conclusion
Salesforce has not yet scheduled its fiscal third-quarter report; it reported the same quarter last year on December 3, 2025. The number to watch is growth excluding Informatica. A result at or above the guidance’s implied 8% would show upgrades reaching the top line, while a figure near Q2’s 6% would suggest the post-session selling had it right.
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Should You Invest in Salesforce?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
