Key Takeaways
- B. Riley cut its Oklo price target to $61 from $92 on Oct. 28 and kept its Buy rating, with the stock down nearly 80% in 2026
- Even after the cut, the target sits more than double above the share price, a little below the $67 consensus target.
- Analysts now expect bigger losses for 2026 and 2027 than they did three months ago, and only $46 million of revenue in 2028.
- The call leaves out the cost of getting there: analysts expect Oklo to burn $6.3 billion through 2030, against $3.0 billion of cash at June 30, so more stock sales look likely before any rebound.
Oklo (OKLO) has had a rough 2026. On Wednesday, it got a little wrose. B. Riley cut its price target to $61 from $92.
But it kept its Buy rating, and $61 still sits 130% above today’s roughly $26 share price.
Bigger bills, more shares
Three pieces of news did the damage:
- In August, Oklo raised its 2026 guidance to $120 million to $150 million of operating cash use and $400 million to $500 million of plant spending.
- On Sept. 11, it set up a new $1 billion at-the-market stock program. Shares outstanding were already up 34% from the end of 2024 to June 30, 2026.
- On Oct. 19, Piper Sandler raised its estimate of what each Oklo plant costs to build to $7,000 per kilowatt from $4,000.
B. Riley is still a buyer
When B. Riley last cut, to $92 from $129 in March, it pointed to progress across power, fuel and isotopes. That included DOE approvals for the first Aurora plant and Meta’s prepayment agreement for up to 1.2 gigawatts in Ohio.
The best evidence for that case is Groves, Oklo’s isotope test reactor in Texas. It reached first criticality on Aug. 5. CEO Jacob DeWitte said on the second-quarter call that it “meaningfully reduces execution uncertainty.”
TIKR tracks 24 analysts on Oklo. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oklo, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oklo’s Analyst Ratings
Does $61 add up?
The consensus target has fallen from $106 last November to $67 now…
TD Cowen initiated coverage on Oct. 26 at Hold with a $26 target, right around the share price.
Estimates are moving the wrong way, too. Analysts now expect losses of $0.96 a share for 2026 and $1.02 for 2027, up from $0.73 and $0.83 three months ago.
And revenue barely shows up before 2028…
With so little revenue to price, B. Riley’s $61 works out to more than 1,500x the sales analysts expect over the next twelve months.
The cash is the bigger issue. Oklo held $3.0 billion of cash and marketable securities at June 30, 2026, and analysts’ models burn $6.3 billion of free cash flow from 2026 through 2030.
Shareholders pay first
Until a customer or lender pays for a plant, shareholders do.
That’s what B. Riley’s call misses. Oklo needs more stock sales to build its reactors. A 130% rebound within a year is hard to see.
Oklo reports third-quarter results before the open on Nov. 6: watch the cash balance and the quarter’s stock sales. A first cost for Aurora-INL, or a signed Meta contract, would change the picture.
So, what is Oklo stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Oklo could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
