Key Takeaways
- Oklo stock has lost 83% over the past 12 months, and on Oct. 19 Piper Sandler cut its price target to $49 from $55 while keeping its Overweight rating.
- Even after the cut, Piper’s target implies 82% upside, though it sits below the $75 analyst consensus.
- Analysts now expect a 2027 loss of $1.06 per share, wider than the $0.82 they expected 90 days ago, and revenue stays in the single-digit millions until 2028.
- The numbers don’t back the call yet, and Oklo’s capital markets day in spring 2027 is where its plant costs get tested.
Oklo (OKLO) has lost 83% over the past 12 months, and on Monday one of its bulls trimmed its number. Piper Sandler cut its price target to $49 from $55 and kept its Overweight rating, a call that still sees 82% upside from $26.92.
That’s still a lot of faith after a year like this.
Dilution on top of a sector sell-off
Oklo closed at $163.39 on Oct. 17, 2025. It’s been mostly downhill since.
On Sept. 11, Oklo announced a new $1 billion at-the-market stock offering, and shares fell more than 9% that day. (TIKR looked at its 26% jump in share count later that month.)
On Oct. 14, small-reactor stocks plunged as a group, a day after Oklo said it would advance its Groves 2 Forge isotope project. By Oct. 16, it had closed at a one-year low of $27.97.
Piper’s bull case just got pricier
Analyst Dimple Gosai’s cut comes down to costs. The firm raised its estimate for what each new Oklo plant will cost to build to $7,000 per kilowatt from $4,000, and it now counts only the plants Oklo has named.
Piper isn’t counting on new letters of intent, so any new deal would be upside. It expects fuller guidance on plant costs, power purchase agreements and fuel at Oklo’s capital markets day in spring 2027.
Until then, investors are mostly buying a plan. As CEO Jake DeWitte said on the second-quarter call, “Not every part of the system is commercially operating today, but this is the platform we are actively building.”
Does $49 add up?
The consensus target is $75, with targets from $14 to $130 as of Oct. 16. Even after the cut, Piper sits below the middle of the pack.
That consensus has slid most of the year, from a high of $117 on Jan. 21.
(The stock fell much faster, from $162 to $28 over the same year.)
Buy ratings fell to 7 as of Oct. 16 from 10 at the end of June, with 6 Outperforms, 9 Holds and 1 Underperform.
Analysts now expect Oklo to lose $1.06 per share in 2027, wider than the $0.82 they expected 90 days ago. And revenue stays in the single-digit millions until 2028.
Nothing in Piper’s cost change should lift those revenue estimates soon.
With losses expected through 2027, there’s no earnings multiple to test $49 against, and on revenue this small, the sales multiple runs into the thousands.
The numbers don’t back it yet
Oklo could sell more stock, at a far lower price, to fund plants Piper now thinks cost more.
Piper’s $49 rests on plants that won’t run for years, while losses widen and the consensus target keeps falling. I’d want to see Oklo’s own plant costs before betting on a rebound.
The real test is next spring’s capital markets day. If Oklo’s plant costs come in under Piper’s $7,000 per kilowatt, or it signs a deal Piper isn’t counting on, $49 starts to look a lot more reasonable.
So what is Oklo stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Oklo could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
