Key Stats for Cameco Stock
- Current Price: $80.70
- Target Price (Mid): ~$234
- Street Target: ~$127
- Potential Total Return: ~190%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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What Happened?
Cameco (CCJ) closed at $80.70 on October 19, down 1.01% on the day and nearly 40% below its closing high. That same day, Barclays lowered its target to $95 from $97.
The slide sped up on October 14, when a hotter-than-expected September inflation report pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to about 5.3%. Cameco fell 5.4% that day, and pre-revenue reactor developer NuScale Power (SMR) fell roughly 11%.
Cameco traded down with the developers. Its July 31 call, though, put dollar figures on what one AP1000 order is worth to Westinghouse. According to Cameco’s investor relations materials, Cameco owns 49% of Westinghouse and Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) owns the other 51%.
One AP1000 Pair Could Mean Up to US$2.3 Billion of Westinghouse EBITDA
Dominic Kieran is Global Managing Director of Cameco U.K. and chair of the Westinghouse board. He said a near-term twin pack costs US$20 billion to US$26 billion, with Westinghouse capturing about 40% to 45% of project value. Because the reactor design is finished, he said “there is no more design needed,” so most of that share is fixed procurement. CFO Heidi Shockey put the average EBITDA margin at about 20% over a project.
Multiplied together, those ranges imply about US$1.6 billion to US$2.3 billion of Westinghouse EBITDA per pair over a build. Cameco’s 49% share of that is roughly US$0.8 billion to US$1.15 billion. Shockey added that “in the first 5 years, we get 50% of the revenue in the initial projects,” though she declined to say how margins spread across those years.
President and COO Grant Isaac said the Department of Energy’s long-lead program envisions “something like 5 2 packs.” Westinghouse would contribute “margin that goes into that equity as opposed to putting cash in.”
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Nothing Is Booked Yet, and Q2 Showed How Lumpy Orders Are
The up to 91 AP1000 opportunities are not firm orders. The DOE’s $17.5 billion is a conditional commitment, and the September 30 U.S. and Korea framework is non-binding. A possible Westinghouse IPO, covered in TIKR’s earlier look at Cameco’s stake, would put a price on these orders but would not book them.
Westinghouse also went bankrupt in 2017 under Toshiba ownership after AP1000 overruns. Asked about overrun risk, Isaac said a new AP1000 is a reactor “that’s no longer first of a kind.”
One project can swing a quarter. Cameco’s share of Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA fell to C$163 million in Q2 2026 from C$352 million a year earlier. The year-ago quarter included roughly US$170 million from the Dukovany project in the Czech Republic. Adjusted EPS of C$0.18 missed the C$0.38 consensus, and shares fell 2.10% on July 31.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $80.70
- Target Price (Mid): ~$234
- Potential Total Return: ~190%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
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TIKR’s mid case is the model’s central scenario. It reaches around $234 by 12/31/30 from the October 19 close of $80.70, a total return of around 190%, or about 29% a year. That sits well above the ~$$127 Street mean and further above Barclays’ new $95 target.
The model’s inputs assume around 15% annual revenue growth and a net margin near 34% over its forecast period, against 9.3% over the past year. Only two analysts publish 2030 revenue estimates. The stock trades at about 23x NTM EV/EBITDA, down from about 35x on March 31.
Upside needs DOE definitive agreements that turn the pipeline into backlog. If orders slip past 2030, the model’s margin path has no projects behind it.
Conclusion
Cameco reports Q3 before the open on Friday, October 30, with consensus at around C$0.34 of adjusted EPS on around C$737 million of revenue. Westinghouse matters more than either number. Adjusted EBITDA above Q2’s C$163 million says the base business is holding. A named utility signing a DOE definitive agreement would turn the pair math into an order.
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So what is Cameco stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
