Steel Dynamics (STLD) stock fell about 5.5% after hours on Monday, to about $232, after the steelmaker earned $5.26 per diluted share in the third quarter. That landed below the $5.34 to $5.38 range the company set on September 17, two weeks before the quarter closed. It also fell short of the $5.42 Zacks consensus.
The dime it missed its own midpoint by is worth about $14 million of profit. Shareholders gave up about $1.9 billion after hours, roughly 135 times that. The release doesn’t split the miss by segment, but the one business it says fell short of plan is aluminum, not steel.
Steel Dynamics’ Steel Mills Kept Climbing
Steel operations earned $1.03 billion, up 43% from the second quarter, on record shipments of 3.8 million tons. The average selling price rose $102 to $1,400 a ton while scrap fell $8 to $404. That widened the spread between them by $110 to $996.
Performance outside steel was mixed:
- Metals recycling earned $33 million, down $15 million, a decline the September guide had flagged.
- Steel fabrication earned $91 million, up from $85 million.
- Other income fell to $11.5 million from $22.1 million.
- Aluminum’s startup loss narrowed to $26 million from $33 million.
Aluminum Volumes Fell Short of Plan
In September, management said aluminum earnings would “improve meaningfully” on higher shipments. Shipments did rise, to 55,000 metric tons from 53,000, but aluminum’s external sales slipped to $476 million from $498 million. CEO Mark Millett blamed weeks of yield losses from the hot mill’s rolling coolant. The company says that problem is fixed, with the mill running “excellent” in October.
Aluminum operating revenue climbed from about $0.1 billion a quarter through most of 2025 to $0.52 billion in the second quarter, big enough to move the total. In July, management said it expected aluminum to turn earnings positive in the second half. After a $26 million third-quarter loss, the fourth quarter now carries all of that promise.
What 11x Already Prices In for STLD
STLD traded at 11.04x NTM normalized earnings at Monday’s close, against a 5-year mean of 10.27x. At the after-hours price, and if estimates hold, that drops to about 10.4x. Since early 2024, the stock has rarely traded below 11x, and it sat near 16x in June.
Cash backs the earnings: operating cash flow of $846 million topped net income of $756 million, and the company bought back $276 million of stock. The sector read is split. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) jumped about 16% the same day on its 2027 outlook. Nucor (NUE) reports on October 26 against its own $5.55 to $5.65 guide.
Conclusion
The selloff charges Steel Dynamics for a stumble in its newest segment in the same quarter its steel mills shipped a record. At roughly 10x forward earnings, the stock sits near its 5-year average multiple and below the range it held through 2024 and 2025, so a good share of the aluminum risk already looks priced in.
Instead, the selloff may reflect concern about aluminum’s future earnings rather than just the quarterly miss. One thing I surely believe is real is that Q4 is the next test: a profit after the coolant fix would strengthen the case that the disruption was temporary, while another loss would weaken it. Neither outcome alone would establish whether the stock’s valuation is justified.
Want to see how STLD’s multiple compares with the last five years, or line up its segments against Nucor’s before October 26? Pull up the same NTM P/E and segment revenue charts used here, free on TIKR. Learn more here.
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