Key Takeaways
- General Motors stock is up 46.4% over the past year to $83.96 on October 16, but it has gained just 3.2% since closing 2025 at $81.32.
- Two 2026 guidance raises took GM’s adjusted EPS outlook to $12.00 to $14.00.
- Thirteen analysts rate GM a buy and 7 an outperform, with 4 holds, 1 no opinion, and a $104.17 mean target sitting 24.1% above the latest close.
- Third-quarter results on October 20 should show whether most of GM’s remaining 2026 warranty savings landed as planned.
General Motors (GM) stock is up 46.4% over the past year, closing at $84 on October 16, after four straight quarterly earnings beats and three guidance raises.
But almost none of that gain belongs to 2026. GM closed last year at $81, so the stock is up just 3.2% this year by my math, even though the company has raised its full-year outlook twice since January. The business kept getting better. The share price mostly sat still.
Ten Weeks Did Most of GM Stock’s Work
The run started on October 21, 2025. GM beat third-quarter estimates and raised its full-year outlook, and the stock jumped nearly 15% that day from a $58.00 close on October 20. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.80 against the $2.31 analysts expected, and the 2025 adjusted EPS guide rose to $9.75 to $10.50, from $8.25 to $10.00.
GM stock kept climbing through year-end. It closed December at $81.32, a 40.2% gain on that October 20 close in about ten weeks.
January 27 added the last leg. A fourth-quarter beat, a 20% dividend increase and a new $6 billion share-repurchase authorization sent the stock up 8.75% that day, with adjusted EPS of $2.51 against a $2.20 estimate. That spike near $86 is the high-water mark the chart wouldn’t clear again until summer.
Two Guidance Raises, and GM Stock Is Up 3.2% in 2026
The first quarter gave the January pop straight back. GM closed March at $74.50, 8.4% below its year-end close.
When GM reported on April 28, the beat was big and the raise was small. Adjusted EPS of $3.70 topped the $2.62 estimate, but GM lifted its 2026 guide only modestly, citing the Iran conflict’s effect on oil and commodity costs, to $11.50 to $13.50 in adjusted EPS.
The second raise came on July 21. Adjusted EPS of $3.57 beat the $3.20 LSEG consensus, and GM moved its 2026 adjusted EPS guide to $12.00 to $14.00 and its adjusted automotive free cash flow guide to $9.5 billion to $11.5 billion. CFO Paul Jacobson put the first half in context on the second-quarter earnings call: “in just 6 months, we delivered an EPS result that was better than 6 of our last 10 full years.” First-half adjusted EPS hit $7.27, up more than 35%, and the diluted share count ended June at 893 million, approximately 8% below a year earlier.
That was the one stretch in 2026 where the stock followed the numbers. GM stock rose into a late-July peak near $90, the highest point on the chart.
It didn’t hold. The stock slid to $77.00 by September 30, and September’s drop had no single trigger: it spanned Jacobson’s warning that the pickup changeover would cost about 35,000 trucks in the fourth quarter, a Federal Reserve rate hike, and fears that Chinese automakers could enter the US market. Through September 24, the consensus forward EPS estimate had risen about 26% this year while the forward P/E fell from 7.36x to 5.76x. Investors were paying 22% less for every dollar of expected profit. Through September 24, the consensus forward EPS estimate had risen about 26% this year while the forward P/E fell from 7.36x to 5.76x. Investors were paying 22% less for every dollar of expected profit.
October has clawed some of it back: GM stock is up 9% from that September 30 close.
Analysts Raised Their GM Target Faster Than the Stock Moved
Thirteen analysts rate GM a buy and 7 an outperform, with 4 holds and 1 no opinion. The underperform and sell ratings that each held 1 analyst on September 30 are now gone, and holds have halved from 8 a year ago. The mean target of $104.17 is up 31.1% since December 31, 2025, when it sat at $79.46, below that day’s close, while the stock has added 3.2% over the same stretch. It now sits 24.1% above the October 16 close.
Even the lowest target, $75, sits only 10.7% below today’s price. The Street spent 2026 marking GM up for earnings the stock hasn’t paid for yet.
What General Motors Needs From October 20
GM reports third-quarter results before the open on Tuesday, October 20. On the July call, Jacobson said warranty was tracking to a $1 billion to $1.5 billion improvement this year, with $500 million banked in the first half and most of the rest expected in the third quarter. That’s the line to check first. If warranty delivers and the $12.00 to $14.00 guide holds through a fourth quarter missing about 35,000 trucks, the case for the Street’s $104.17 gets real support.
Another beat on its own isn’t the test. GM has beaten estimates at all three reports this year, and the stock still sits within $3 of where it started January. The number that matters more is the first hard read on 2027, which Jacobson has said comes in January. Management has already said it expects revenue, EBIT and free cash flow to grow next year, and that outlook, more than any third-quarter beat, decides whether a forward P/E that sat at 5.76x in late September stays there.
The same price chart and the full history of Street targets for GM are free to pull up on TIKR, so you can track how October 20 moves both. Learn more here.
So what is General Motors stock actually worth?
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